FX Daily

Euro money supply and lending figures. The credit impulse points to higher euro GDP growth and the positive development is set to continue in 2015. In December last year, loans to the private sector turned positive for the first time since mid-2012. This reflects that on the supply side the ECB has finished its stress tests and asset quality review, implying banks can focus on lending out to the private sector. Added to this, the QE programme should give cheaper and more accessible credit. On the demand side, private consumption, in particular, is strengthening and banks have also reported that demand for loans from enterprises is increasing. Also keep an eye on M1 growth that has picked up and points to a decent euro recovery this year.

German unemployment. After a decline in January we expect it to be flat in February. The trend continues to be down, though.

US inflation is expected to drop sharply from 0.8% to 0.2% y/y (consensus is for a decline to -0.1% y/y). More interesting, though, will be core inflation where we look for an unchanged rate of 1.6% y/y in line with consensus. Core inflation is likely to be one of the measures the Fed watches closely in order to decide the time of lift-off on rates. US durable goods orders and jobless claims are also on tap today.

Danish manufacturing confidence data.

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