Sideways trading within a broad $1.1260-1.1451 range has dominated for the past two weeks with a break of either side dictating the next move. Recent topside failures have now resulted in a close back below the 21-DMA which provides bears with added confidence but the $1.1260 support remains key with a close below needed to shift immediate focus back to the 2015 low. The Bollinger band base is noted at $1.1261 and is the key concern for bears.
RES 4: $1.1680 High Jan 21
RES 3: $1.1661 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1.2571-1.1098
RES 2: $1.1541 Low Jan 21 now resistance
RES 1: $1.1450 High Feb 19
PRICE: $1.1331
SUP 1: $1.1279 Low Feb 20
SUP 2: $1.1260 Low Jan 28
SUP 3: $1.1224 Low Jan 27
SUP 4: $1.1097 2015 Low Jan 26
The $1.5468-86 region has again confirmed significance with bears taking a little comfort in the failure to close above the 61.8% Fibo and the failure ahead of the $1.5486 level above. $1.5316 & $1.5486 remain key levels with bears needing a close below $1.5316 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and below the 21-DMa to end bullish hopes and initially target the $1.5200 support. Bulls need a close above $1.5486 to confirm a bullish bias and target the $1.5581-1.5622 region where the 100-DMA is located.
RES 4: $1.5622 High Dec 31
RES 3: $1.5587 100-DMA
RES 2: $1.5486 Previous daily support now resistance
RES 1: $1.5468 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1.5788-1.4951
PRICE: $1.5435
SUP 1: $1.5422 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: $1.5316 Low Feb 17
SUP 3: $1.5257 21-DMA
SUP 4: $1.5200 Low Feb 9
Bulls have so far been unable to capitalize on recent bounces from the 21-DMA with bears needing a close below the channel base to end bullish hopes and target ¥115.45-116.36. Overall the ¥115.45-85 region remains key support with a close below needed to shift focus back to the 200-DMA (¥110.02). Bulls need a close above ¥119.43 to provide breathing space and confirm bullish focus on the ¥120.48-121.25 region where the daily channel top is located.
RES 4: ¥121.25 Rising daily channel top
RES 3: ¥120.78 2015 High Jan 2
RES 2: ¥120.48 High Feb 11
RES 1: ¥119.43 High Feb 17
PRICE: ¥119.10
SUP 1: ¥118.74 Low Feb 23
SUP 2: ¥118.48 21-DMA
SUP 3: ¥118.15 Rising daily channel base
SUP 4: ¥116.66 Low Feb 2
Since closing above the 21-DMA two weeks ago the EUR/JPY has been unable to manage a close below with bounces back towards the key ¥136.72 resistance resulting. Monday saw another test of the 21-DMA with it again having held and bulls now looking for another bounce back towards the key ¥136.72 resistance level. Bears continue to look for a close below ¥133.55 to confirm a clean break of the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to the ¥132.22 level and overall focus to the ¥129.97 level.
RES 4: ¥139.40 200-DMA
RES 3: ¥138.94 High Jan 14
RES 2: ¥137.65 High Jan 20, 38.2% Fibo 149.80-130.02
RES 1: ¥136.72 High Feb 12
PRICE: ¥134.96
SUP 1: ¥134.66 Hourly support Feb 20, 21-DMA
SUP 2: ¥133.55 Low Feb 20
SUP 3: ¥132.48 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥132.22 Low Feb 2
The significance of the £0.7462 resistance was confirmed recently with the EUR/GBP pulling back from ahead of this region to record fresh 2015 and 7+ year lows again Monday. The Bollinger band bases are seen as key concerns for bears and may limit follow through as bears remain focused on £0.7239. Bulls continue to look for a close above £0.7462 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure and to hint at a bounce that targets the £0.7595 level.
RES 4: £0.7595 Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 3: £0.7520 Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance
RES 2: £0.7462 High Feb 9
RES 1: £0.7437 21-DMA
PRICE: £0.7337
SUP 1: £0.7325 2015 Low Feb 23
SUP 2: £0.7316 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: £0.7239 High Dec 12 2007 now resistance
SUP 4: £0.7114 Low Dec 17 2007