The EUR/USD continues to hesitate ahead of the key $1.1449 resistance level as it consolidates above the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close above $1.1449 to hint at a shift higher in focus and above $1.1540 to target layers of resistance $1.1680-1.1897. Initial support is noted at the 21-DMA but bears need a close below $1.1319 to ease pressure on initial resistance and below $1.1260 to reconfirm initial focus on 2015 lows. Daily studies are well placed should a leg higher commence
RES 4: $1.1680 High Jan 21
RES 3: $1.1661 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1.2571-1.1098
RES 2: $1.1541 Low Jan 21 now resistance
RES 1: $1.1449 High Feb 17
PRICE: $1.1419
SUP 1: $1.1345 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.1319 Low Feb 16
SUP 3: $1.1260 Low Jan 28
SUP 4: $1.1224 Low Jan 27
Wednesday’s bounce from the channel base and around the 55-DMA resulted in a pop above the 61.8% Fibo only to stall ahead of the $1.5486 resistance. $1.5468-86 remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to shift focus to the $1.5600-22 region where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger band top at $1.5501 and O/B studies are key concerns for bulls with the Bollinger band top limiting follow through.
Bears now need a close below $1.5416 to relieve pressure on initial resistance and below $1.5316 to shift focus to $1.5200-22
RES 4: $1.5622 High Dec 31
RES 3: $1.5600 100-DMA
RES 2: $1.5486 Previous daily support now resistance
RES 1: $1.5468 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1.5788-1.4951
LPRICE: $1.5452
SUP 1: $1.5416 Hourly support Feb 18 & 19
SUP 2: $1.5316 Low Feb 17
SUP 3: $1.5222 21-DMA
SUP 4: $1.5200 Low Feb 9
Bulls have so far been unable to capitalize on recent bounces from the 21-DMA although until a close below the 21-DMA is seen a bullish bias remains. Bulls need a close above ¥119.43 to provide some breathing space and confirm bullish focus on the ¥120.48-00 region where the daily channel top is located. Overall bears now need a close below the channel base to confirm an end to bullish hopes and shift bearish focus to the ¥115.45-116.06 region where the 100-DMA is located.
RES 4: ¥121.00 Rising daily channel top
RES 3: ¥120.78 2015 High Jan 2
RES 2: ¥120.48 High Feb 11
RES 1: ¥119.43 High Feb 17
LPRICE: ¥118.63
SUP 1: ¥118.35 21-DMA
SUP 2: ¥117.89 Rising daily channel base
SUP 3: ¥116.66 Low Feb 2, Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥116.06 100-DMA
Last week’s retreat from the ¥136.72 level resulted in flirtation with the 21-DMA but the failure to close below and the bounce back towards last week’s highs provides bulls with some confidence. The ¥136.72 resistance is key with bulls needing a close above to add support to the bullish case and shift focus to layers of resistance ¥138.94-140.77 where key DMAs are located. Bears need a close below ¥133.93 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to the ¥129.97 leve
RES 4: ¥139.44 200-DMA
RES 3: ¥138.94 High Jan 14
RES 2: ¥137.65 High Jan 20, 38.2% Fibo 149.80-130.02
RES 1: ¥136.72 High Feb 12
PRICE: ¥135.47
SUP 1: ¥135.07 Hourly support Feb 18
SUP 2: ¥134.79 Hourly resistance Feb 17 now support
SUP 3: ¥134.43 21-DMA
SUP 4: ¥133.93 Low Feb 17
The significance of the £0.7455-62 region was confirmed recently with the EUR/GBP pulling back from ahead of this region to record fresh 2015 and 7+ year lows. The Bollinger band bases are seen as key concerns for bears and may limit follow through below £0.7344. Bulls now need a close above £0.7462 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to hint at a bounce that targets the £0.7595 level.
RES 4: £0.7595 Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 3: £0.7520 Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance
RES 2: £0.7462 High Feb 9
RES 1: £0.7455 21-DMA
PRICE: £0.7388
SUP 1: £0.7362 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: £0.7348 2015 Low Feb 18
SUP 3: £0.7344 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: £0.7239 High Dec 12 2007 now resistance