Time spent above the 21-DMA ($1.1359) has so far been brief with Monday’s sell-off seeing immediate focus return to the $1.1260 support. Bears look for a close below this level to reconfirm the bearish bias and immediate focus on the 2015 low. Bulls now need a close above $1.1443 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and ease bearish pressure whereas above $1.1541 is needed to hint at a bigger bounce that targets layers of resistance $1.1661-1.1897
RES 4: $1.1680 High Jan 21
RES 3: $1.1661 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1.2571-1.1098
RES 2: $1.1541 Low Jan 21 now resistance
RES 1: $1.1443 High Feb 13
PRICE: $1.1361
SUP 1: $1.1319 Low Feb 16
SUP 2: $1.1260 Low Jan 28
SUP 3: $1.1224 Low Jan 27
SUP 4: $1.1154 Bollinger band base
The $1.5468-86 region remains key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to shift focus to the $1.5615-22 region where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger band top at $1.5441 and O/B studies are key concerns for bulls with the Bollinger band top limiting follow through on spikes above. Bears now look for a close below Monday’s low to confirm a close back below the 55-DMA ($1.5362), easing renewed bullish pressure and shifting focus back to the 21-DMA.
RES 4: $1.5622 High Dec 31
RES 3: $1.5615 100-DMA
RES 2: $1.5486 Previous daily support now resistance
RES 1: $1.5468 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1.5788-1.4951
LPRICE: $1.5377
SUP 1: $1.5339 Low Feb 16
SUP 2: $1.5200 Low Feb 9
SUP 3: $1.5195 21-DMA
SUP 4: $1.4988 Monthly low Feb 3
Last week’s pullback from spikes above the Bollinger band top (¥119.91) sees USD/JPY having retested the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to ¥115.45-85. Bulls need a close above ¥119.28 to relieve the pressure on the 21-DMA and to shift immediate focus back to the ¥120.48-78 region. Overall, while the 21-DMA supports a slight bullish bias remains with the key concern being the Bollinger band top on a break above ¥120.00
RES 4: ¥121.85 2014 High Dec 8
RES 3: ¥120.78 2015 High Jan 2
RES 2: ¥120.48 High Feb 11
RES 1: ¥119.28 Alternating daily support/resistance
LPRICE: ¥118.49
SUP 1: ¥118.28 21-DMA
SUP 2: ¥117.72 Rising daily trend line
SUP 3: ¥116.66 Low Feb 2, Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥115.85 100-DMA
Last week’s retreat from the ¥136.72 level is a concern for bulls with the resulting pullback seeing dips below the 21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below ¥133.93 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to the ¥129.97 level. Bulls will hold out hope for a bounce until a close below the 21-DMA is seen with bulls needing a close above ¥136.72 to shift focus to the ¥139.47-140.80 region where key DMAs are located
RES 4: ¥139.47 200-DMA
RES 3: ¥138.94 High Jan 14
RES 2: ¥137.65 High Jan 20, 38.2% Fibo 149.80-130.02
RES 1: ¥136.72 High Feb 12
LPRICE: ¥134.65
SUP 1: ¥134.43 21-DMA
SUP 2: ¥133.93 Low Feb 17
SUP 3: ¥133.68 Low Feb 9
SUP 4: ¥132.22 Low Feb 2
The £0.7595 level confirmed significance with the steady recovery from 2015 lows topping out at this level before reversing sharply lower in recent weeks. Bearish pressure resulted in fresh 2015 and 7+ year lows last week with immediate bearish focus having shifted to the daily Bollinger band base. Bulls need a close above £0.7462 to ease bearish pressure and above £0.7520 to shift focus back to the key £0.7595 level. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears.
RES 4: £0.7715 High Jan 21
RES 3: £0.7595 Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 2: £0.7520 Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance
RES 1: £0.7462 High Feb 9
PRICE: £0.7387
SUP 1: £0.7372 2015 Low Feb 12
SUP 2: £0.7363 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: £0.7326 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: £0.7239 High Dec 12 2007 now resistance