The falling daily channel top comes in around $1.1404 today with bulls needing a close above $1.1460 to confirm a break and shift immediate focus to the $1.1540-1.1680 region where the 21-DMA ($1.1573) is located. While $1.1460 caps immediate bearish focus remains on fresh 2015 and 11+ year lows with bears needing a close below $1.1262 to add weight to the bearish case. O/S daily and weekly studies remain key concerns for bears.
RES 4: $1.1460 Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 3: $1.1423 High Jan 27
RES 2: $1.1404 Falling daily channel top
RES 1: $1.1384 High Jan 28
LPRICE: $1.1296
SUP 1: $1.1260 Low Jan 28
SUP 2: $1.1224 Low Jan 27
SUP 3: $1.1097 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 4: $1.1015 High Sept 1 2003 now support
The failure to close above the 21-DMA on attempts last week has seen a bearish bias and the significance of $1.5223-69 reconfirmed. Bulls need a close above $1.5223 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and falling daily trend line and above $1.5269 to shift immediate focus to the focus back to $1.5371-1.5484. While the 21-DMA caps immediate focus remain on the 2015 low and overall focus on the 2013 low.
RES 4: $1.5223 High Jan 27
RES 3: $1.5163 Falling daily trend line
RES 2: $1.5126 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.5109 Hourly support Jan 29 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.5072
SUP 1: $1.4999 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.4989 Low Jan 30
SUP 3: $1.4951 2015 Low Jan 23
SUP 4: $1.4818 2013 Low July 9 2013
Despite spikes above the 21-DMA (¥118.11) last week the USD/JPY remains unable to close above with the 55-DMA and ¥118.86 levels key. Bulls need a close above ¥118.86 to confirm breaks of the 21 & 55-DMAs, shifting immediate focus to the ¥120.00-85 region. While ¥118.86 caps bears retain the upper hand but now need a close below ¥116.65 to confirm bearish focus on the ¥115.44-85 region with the Bollinger band base seen as the key concern.
RES 4: ¥119.98 Jan 8
RES 3: ¥119.32 High Jan 12
RES 2: ¥118.86 High Jan 13 & 20
RES 1: ¥118.70 55-DMA
LPRICE: ¥117.67
SUP 1: ¥116.65 Hourly support Feb 2
SUP 2: ¥116.53 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥115 85 2015 Low Jan 16
SUP 4: ¥115 57 Monthly Low Dec 16
The ¥134.39 resistance remains key this week with this level having capped last week’s recovery from ahead of the ¥129.97 Sept 2013 monthly low. Bulls need a close above ¥134.39 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus to the ¥135.79-137.67 region where the 21-DMA (¥136.70) is located. While ¥134.35 caps bears remain focused on retests of the ¥129.97 level with Bollinger band bases and O/S studies their key concerns
RES 4: ¥137.67 High Jan 20
RES 3: ¥135.79 Low Jan 21 now resistance
RES 2: ¥135.06 Hourly resistance Jan 23
RES 1: ¥134.39 High Jan 28
LPRICE: ¥132.98
SUP 1: ¥131.96 Hourly support Jan 30
SUP 2: ¥130.12 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥129.97 Monthly Low Sept 6 2013
SUP 4: ¥129.38 Low Aug 30 2013
Thursday’s bounce eased the bearish pressure that has dominated with bulls also taking comfort in correcting O/S daily studies which are supportive of further topside. The lack of follow through on Friday’s move is a concern for bulls who now need a close above Friday’s high to confirm a shift in immediate focus back to the key £0.7595 level. While £0.7536 caps a bearish bias dominates with fresh 2015 lows favoured.
RES 4: £0.7715 High Jan 21
RES 3: £0.7645 21-DMA
RES 2: £0.7595 Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 1: £0.7536 High Jan 30 now resistance
LPRICE: £0.7495
SUP 1: £0.74.76 Hourly support Feb 2
SUP 2: £0.7442 Low Jan 29
SUP 3: £0.7405 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 4: £0.7392 Monthly Low Jan 25 2008