The falling daily channel top comes in around $1.1433 today with bulls needing a close above $1.1460 to confirm a break and shift immediate focus to the $1.1540-1.1680 region where the 21-DMA ($1.1603) is located. While $1.1460 caps immediate bearish focus remains on fresh 2015 and 11+ year lows with bears needing a close below $1.1262 to add weight to the bearish case. The Bollinger base is noted at $1.1110 and is likely to limit follow through.
RES 4: $1.1460 Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 3: $1.1433 Falling daily channel top
RES 2: $1.1423 High Jan 27
RES 1: $1.1384 High Jan 28
LPRICE: $1.1337
SUP 1: $1.1260 Low Jan 28
SUP 2: $1.1224 Low Jan 27
SUP 3: $1.1097 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 4: $1.1015 High Sept 1 2003 now support
The failure to close above the 21-DMA ($1.5168) has seen a bearish bias and the significance of the layers of resistance in the $1.5223-1.5333 region reconfirmed. Bulls need a close above $1.5223 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and falling daily trend line and above $1.5333 to shift focus back to the $1.5486-1.5622 region. While the 21-DMA caps immediate focus remain on the 2015 low and overall focus on the 2013 low.
RES 4: $1.5223 High Jan 27
RES 3: $1.5181 Falling daily trend line
RES 2: $1.5141 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.5109 Hourly support Jan 29 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.5079
SUP 1: $1.5018 Low Jan 29
SUP 2: $1.4999 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.4951 2015 Low Jan 23
SUP 4: $1.4818 2013 Low July 9 2013
Despite spikes above the 21-DMA (¥118.26) the USD/JPY remains unable to close above with the 55-DMA and key ¥118.86 levels just above. Bulls need a close above ¥118.86 to confirm breaks of the 21 & 55-DMAs, shifting immediate focus to the ¥119.90-98 region. While ¥118.86 caps bears retain the upper hand but need a close below ¥117.18 to confirm bearish focus on the ¥115.44-85 region. A close below ¥115.44 is needed to shift focus to the 100-DMA noted around ¥114.68 today.
RES 4: ¥119.98 Jan 8
RES 3: ¥119.32 High Jan 12
RES 2: ¥118.86 High Jan 13 & 20
RES 1: ¥118.70 55-DMA
LPRICE: ¥117.81
SUP 1: ¥117.18 Low Jan 21
SUP 2: ¥116.39 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥115 85 2015 Low Jan 16
SUP 4: ¥115 57 Monthly Low Dec 16
Bulls took a little comfort in the bounce Monday, the biggest since the sell-off began back in late Dec but the recovery appears to have come to an end. The brief move above the previous ¥134.26 resistance was aggressively reversed with immediate focus having returned to the ¥129.97 level where the Bollinger band comes in today too. Bulls need a close above ¥134.39 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus to the ¥135.66-137.72 region where the 21-DMA is located.
RES 4: ¥137.67 High Jan 20
RES 3: ¥135.79 Low Jan 21 now resistance
RES 2: ¥135.06 Hourly resistance Jan 23
RES 1: ¥134.39 High Jan 28
LPRICE: ¥133.56
SUP 1: ¥132.37 Hourly support Jan 29
SUP 2: ¥130.88 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥129.97 Monthly Low Sept 6 2013, Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥129.38 Low Aug 30 2013
Thursday’s bounce eased the bearish pressure that has dominated with bulls also taking comfort in correcting O/S daily studies which are supportive of further topside. Immediate focus shifts to the £0.7595 resistance with bears now needing a close below £0.7500 to reconfirm bearish focus and initially target the recent 2015 lows. Bulls need a close above £0.7595 to shift focus to the £0.7664-0.7715 region where the 21-DMA is located.
RES 4: £0.7715 High Jan 21
RES 3: £0.7677 High Jan 22
RES 2: £0.7664 21-DMA
RES 1: £0.7595 Low Jan 16 now resistance
LPRICE: £0.7515
SUP 1: £0.7500 Hourly support Jan 29
SUP 2: £0.7442 Low Jan 29
SUP 3: £0.7405 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 4: £0.7392 Monthly Low Jan 25 2008