The bounce from recent 2015 and 11 year lows provides bulls with a little comfort but layers of resistance remain with the $1.1460-1.1727 region the initial focus. Bulls need a close above $1.1540 to confirm breaks of $1.1460 and the channel top whereas above $1.1727 confirms a break of the 21-DMA ($1.1678) and shifts focus to the $1.1897-1.1977 region. The $1.1224 support is now key with bears needing a close below to reconfirm immediate focus on $1.1015.
RES 4: $1.1661 38.2% Fibonacci 1.2571-1.1097
RES 3: $1.1540 Low Jan 21 now resistance
RES 2: $1.1502 Falling daily channel top
RES 1: $1.1460 Low Jan 16 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.1339
SUP 1: $1.1224 Low Jan 27
SUP 2: $1.1097 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 3: $1.1015 High Sept 1 2003 now support
SUP 4: $1.0765 Monthly Low Sept 3 2003
Bulls are taking some comfort in the recovery from the recent 2015 lows that resulted in the first pop above the 21-DMA ($1.5191) since mid-Dec but failure to close above sees the bearish bias remain. Layers of resistance in the $1.5223-1.5333 region remain key. Bulls need a close above $1.5223 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and above $1.5333 to shift focus back to the $1.5486-1.5622 region. Initial support is now noted at $1.5118 with bears needing a close below to reconfirm a bearish bias
RES 4: $1.5370 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 1.5788-1.4951
RES 3: $1.5333 High Jan 5
RES 2: $1.5271 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1.5788-1.4951
RES 1: $1.5223 High Jan 27
LPRICE: $1.5160
SUP 1: $1.5118 Hourly resistance Jan 27 now support
SUP 2: $1.5061 Hourly support Jan 27
SUP 3: $1.4951 2015 Low Jan 23
SUP 4: $1.4818 2013 Low July 9 2013
The ¥118.86 level remains key resistance with the 21 & 55-DMAs noted below. Bulls need a close above ¥118.86 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (¥118.45) and 55-DMA (¥118.64), shifting immediate focus to the ¥119.90-98 region. While ¥118.86 caps bears retain the upper hand but need a close below ¥117.18 to confirm bearish focus on the ¥115.44-85 region. The Bollinger band base is expected to limit follow through on a break lower and will become the key concern for bears.
RES 4: ¥119.98 Jan 8
RES 3: ¥119.32 High Jan 12
RES 2: ¥118.86 High Jan 13 & 20
RES 1: ¥118.45 21-DMA
LPRICE: ¥118.13
SUP 1: ¥117.18 Low Jan 21
SUP 2: ¥116.43 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥115 85 2015 Low Jan 16
SUP 4: ¥115 57 Monthly Low Dec 16
Bulls took a little comfort in the bounce Monday, the biggest since the sell-off began back in late Dec. In saying that, bulls still need a close above ¥134.26 to hint at further topside and initially target the ¥137.67 level. While ¥134.26 caps immediate focus remains on the ¥129.97 low with Monday’s bounce coming from marginally above this level. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band bases are seen as key concerns for bears but while ¥134.26 caps their dominance continues
RES 4: ¥137.67 High Jan 20
RES 3: ¥135.79 Low Jan 21 now resistance
RES 2: ¥135.06 Hourly resistance Jan 23
RES 1: ¥134.26 Hourly resistance Jan 23
LPRICE: ¥133.97
SUP 1: ¥132.50 Low Jan 27
SUP 2: ¥130.54 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥129.97 Monthly Low Sept 6 2013
SUP 4: ¥129.38 Low Aug 30 2013
Overall bearish focus remains on the £0.7114-0.7239 region last seen in Dec 2007. Bulls need a close above £0.7517 to ease bearish pressure and above £0.7595 to hint at a shift in focus back to the key £0.7689-46 region where the 21-DMA is located. The Bollinger band base and O/S daily studies remain key concerns for bears but while £0.7517 caps immediate focus remains on fresh 7 year lows.
RES 4: £0.7715 High Jan 21
RES 3: £0.7677 High Jan 22
RES 2: £0.7595 Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 1: £0.7517 Hourly resistance Jan 23
LPRICE: £0.7478
SUP 1: £0.7405 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 2: £0.7392 Monthly Low Jan 25 2008
SUP 3: £0.7239 High Dec 12 2007 now resistance
SUP 4: £0.7114 Low Dec 17 2007