Wednesday’s rally stalled at the falling daily channel top ($1.1640) with bulls now needing a close above $1.1680 to confirm a break, an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus to the $1.1861-97 region where the 21-DMA is located. While $1.1680 caps immediate focus remains on the $1.1460-1.1540 region with a break lower confirming overall focus on $1.1137-1.1383. The Bollinger band base and O/S studies remain key concerns for bears.
RES 4: $1.1793 High Jan 15
RES 3: $1.1747 Hourly resistance Jan 15
RES 2: $1.1680 High Jan 21
RES 1: $1.1629 Hourly resistance Jan 22
LPRICE: $1.1590
SUP 1: $1.1540 Low Jan 21
SUP 2: $1.1460 2015 Low Jan 16
SUP 3: $1.1383 Monthly low Nov 7 2003
SUP 4: $1.1137 Low Sept 12 2003
The $1.5274 resistance level confirmed its significance last week with GBP/USD correcting sharply lower from this level to reconfirm immediate focus on $1.5023. In saying that, bulls take some comfort from the bounces on approach to the $1.5023 level with a close below needed to target $1.4818 2013 lows. The $1.5276-33 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to end bearish hopes and target $1.5486-1.5622 with the 55-DMA noted at $1.5533.
RES 4: $1.5322 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1.5788-1.5034
RES 3: $1.5280 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.5274 High Jan 6
RES 1: $1.5200 High Jan 20
LPRICE: $1.5126
SUP 1: $1.5057 Low Jan 20
SUP 2: $1.5023 Low July 15 2013
SUP 3: $1.4911 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.4818 2013 Low July 9 2013
Following Wednesday’s sharp pullback from ahead of the 21-DMA the 55-DMA is again seen as initial resistance with it having capped so far in Asia today. The 21-DMA failure Wednesday shifts overall focus back to the ¥115.44-85 region. The 21-DMA remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to retests of 2014 highs and overall focus back to the ¥124.16 2007 high. The Bollinger band base is seen as the key concern for bears and is expected to limit follow through.
RES 4: ¥119.96 Falling daily trend line
RES 3: ¥119.32 High Jan 12
RES 2: ¥118.85 High Jan 13 & 20, 21-DMA
RES 1: ¥118.43 55-DMA
LPRICE: ¥118.19
SUP 1: ¥117.71 Hourly support Jan 21
SUP 2: ¥117.18 Low Jan 21
SUP 3: ¥116.48 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥115 85 2015 Low Jan 16
The recovery from just short of 2014 lows stalled ahead of layers of resistance with bears firmly focused on the 2014 low and then daily and weekly Bollinger bands below. Layers of resistance remain in the ¥137.64- 141.76 region. Bulls now need a close above ¥138.06 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above ¥138.93 to shift focus back to the key ¥140.16-141.76 region where key DMAs and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement are located
RES 4: ¥140.14 200-DMA
RES 3: ¥138.93 Hourly resistance Jan 14
RES 2: ¥138.06 Hourly support Jan 14 now resistance
RES 1: ¥137.64 High Jan 20
LPRICE: ¥136.99
SUP 1: ¥136.77 Hourly support Jan 22
SUP 2: ¥135.79 Low Jan 21
SUP 3: ¥134.71 Low Jan 16
SUP 4: ¥134.14 2014 Low Oct 16
EUR/GBP remains heavy with initial resistance now noted at £0.7715 and immediate focus on making fresh 7 year lows. The £0.7746-87 resistance region remains key with bulls needing a close above to end bearish hopes and shift focus to layers of resistance in the £0.7832-0.7875 region where key DMAs are located. While £0.7746 caps bears favour a break lower that initially targets £0.7517 with the Bollinger band base their key concern.
RES 4: £0.7787 Falling daily channel top
RES 3: £0.7783 21-DMA
RES 2: £0.7746 High Jan 15
RES 1: £0.7715 High Jan 21
LPRICE: £0.7659
SUP 1: £0.7595 2015 Low Jan 16
SUP 2: £0.7517 Low Feb 26 2008
SUP 3: £0.7392 Monthly Low Jan 25 2008
SUP 4: £0.7239 High Dec 12 2007 now resistance