Sideways trading within a $1.1754-1.1898 range continues for the EUR/USD with O/S daily studies the key concern for bulls and overdue a correction. In saying that, bulls still need to see a close above $1.1898 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $1.1977 to shift immediate focus back to the $1.2107-1.2255 region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears now need fresh 2014 lows and a bearish close to reconfirm focus on 2005 lows.
RES 4: $1.2000 Low Jan 2 now resistance
RES 3: $1.1976 High Jan 5
RES 2: $1.1898 Hourly resistance Jan 7
RES 1: $1.1870 High Jan 12
LPRICE: $1.1825
SUP 1: $1.1786 Low Jan 12
SUP 2: $1.1754 2015 Low Jan 8
SUP 3: $1.1666 Monthly Low Dec 2 2005
SUP 4: $1.1640 2005 Low Nov 15 2005
Bears were unable to capitalize on last week’s break of the falling daily channel base with Friday’s close above $1.5155 easing bearish pressure and shifting immediate focus back to $1.5276-1.5333. O/S daily studies looking to correct higher are seen adding support to the bullish case with bears now needing fresh 2015 lows to reconfirm a bearish bias and overall focus on the 2013 low. Bears now look for a close below $1.5096 to shift focus to 2015 lows.
RES 4: $1.5455 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.5335 Hourly resistance Jan 5
RES 2: $1.5274 High Jan 6
RES 1: $1.5203 Hourly support Jan 5 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.5152
SUP 1: $1.5096 Hourly support Jan 9
SUP 2: $1.5077 Hourly support Jan 9
SUP 3: $1.5023 Low July 15 2013
SUP 4: $1.4818 2013 Low July 9 2013
Failure at the ¥120.00 level last week resulted in a sell-off that has seen a close below the rising daily trend line and a break of last week’s ¥118.05 low. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the bearish case for an initial move back to the ¥115.44-57 region. The Bollinger band base is seen as the key concern for bears on a break lower. Bulls need a close above ¥119.96 to hint at further topside with above ¥121.02 to shift focus back to the 2014 high and then the 2007 high at ¥124.16.
RES 4: ¥120.74 High Jan 2
RES 3: ¥120.36 Falling daily trend line
RES 2: ¥119.96 High Jan 8
RES 1: ¥119.32 High Jan 12
LPRICE: ¥118.79
SUP 1: ¥117.80 55-DMA
SUP 2: ¥117.38, Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 3: ¥115 57 Monthly Low Dec 16
SUP 4: ¥115 44 Low Nov 17
Losses below the 200-DMA (¥140.30) have been limited so far by the Bollinger band base as bears initially remain focused on the ¥138.08 level with overall focus having shifted to the ¥134.14 Oct monthly low. Bulls now need a close above ¥140.88 to ease bearish pressure and above ¥142.01 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA (¥141.69) and falling daily trend line and to shift immediate focus to ¥144.04-145.61
RES 4: ¥142.97 Hourly resistance Jan 5
RES 3: ¥142.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: ¥141.36 Hourly resistance Jan 9
RES 1: ¥140.88 High Jan 12
LPRICE: ¥140.47
SUP 1: ¥139.21 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: ¥139.16 High Sept 29 now support
SUP 3: ¥138.08 High Oct 30 now support
SUP 4: ¥136.29 100-WMA
The £0.7875-91 resistance is seen as key this week with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to the £0.7923 resistance and overall focus to the £0.7975-0.8008 region. Initial resistance is now noted at £0.7839 with bulls needing a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and trend line and an easing of bearish pressure. While £0.7839 caps a break of the £0.7784 support is favoured targeting 2015 lows
RES 4: £0.7923 High Dec 18
RES 3: £0.7891 100-DMA
RES 2: £0.7875 High Jan 6
RES 1: £0.7839 21-DMA, Falling daily trend line
LPRICE: £0.7800
SUP 1: £0.7784 Low Jan 9
SUP 2: £0.7772 Hourly resistance Jan 1 now support
SUP 3: £0.7745 2015 Low Jan 2, Bollinger band base
SUP 4: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008