US ISM non-manufacturing is expected to surprise on the downside today as was the case with the manufacturing ISM last week (previously 59.3, consensus 58.0). The survey for the non-manufacturing sector has been running at a very high level for some time, indicating growth around 5%. However, hard data points to growth in Q4 around 2.5-3% and this should be reflected in lower ISM non-manufacturing data. Final composite Markit PMI for December will also be released but should not change much. It has already fallen to a lower level, which also highlights the downside risk to the ISM non-manufacturing index.
Euro area final composite PMI will also be released but should be broadly unchanged from the first release.
Oil prices will continue to attract attention as the relentless decline continues. While prices may fall further in the short term, we look for a recovery in 2015.
Norwegian Manufacturing PMI is likely to be affected by the decline in oil prices and we look for a decline to 49.5.
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