The lack of follow through on the spike above the 55-DMA Tuesday resulted in a sharp sell-off Wednesday with the bearish close reconfirming immediate focus on 2014 lows and overall focus on the $1.2042-1.2241 region. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls needing a close above $1.2476 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to the $1.2532-99 region where the 55-DMA, Bollinger band top and falling daily trend line are located.
RES 4: $1.2532 55-DMA
RES 3: $1.2519 Hourly resistance Dec 16
RES 2: $1.2476 Hourly resistance Dec 17
RES 1: $1.2386 Hourly support Dec 17 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.2340
SUP 1: $1.2320 Low Dec 17
SUP 2: $1.2278 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.2241 Low Aug 10 2012
SUP 4: $1.2133 Low Aug 2 2012
The sharp sell-off Tuesday that followed the recent topside failure in the $1.5786-1.5828 region resulted in marginal fresh 2014 lows with the Bollinger band base limiting follow through. Fresh 2014 lows see immediate bearish focus shift to the $1.5425-62 region last seen in Aug 2013 with bears now targeting $1.4813 2013 lows overall. Bulls now need a close back above $1.5699 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to the $1.5789-1.5828 region
RES 4: $1.5789 High Dec 16
RES 3: $1.5738 Hourly resistance Dec 17
RES 2: $1.5699 Post FOMC spike Dec 17
RES 1: $1.5602 Hourly resistance Dec 17
LPRICE: $1.5586
SUP 1: $1.5565 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.5541 2014 Low Dec 8
SUP 3: $1.5462 Low Aug 30 2013
SUP 4: $1.5425 Low Aug 28 2013
Wednesday’s bounce eased the previous bearish pressure and has seen immediate pressure return to the ¥119.09 resistance level. Bulls look for a close above this level to confirm a break above the 21-DMA (¥118.68) and add support to the bullish case for a retest of 2014 highs. Layers of support have accumulated with bears now needing a close back below ¥117.82 to reconfirm bearish pressure and shift
focus back to the key ¥115.31-49 support region where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is located.
RES 4: ¥121.00 High Dec 9
RES 3: ¥120.92 Bollinger band top
RES 2: ¥119.93 High Dec 9
RES 1: ¥119.09 Hourly resistance Dec 12
LPRICE: ¥118.56
SUP 1: ¥117.82 Hourly resistance Dec 17 now support
SUP 2: ¥116.80 Hourly support Dec 17
SUP 3: ¥116.23 Hourly support Dec 16
SUP 4: ¥115.49 38.2% Fibonacci 105.19-121.85
The sell-off Tuesday bounced from ahead of the ¥144.77 support level with the ¥147.15 resistance level capping the bounce and confirming significance. Bulls now look for a close above this level to relieve the immediate bearish pressure that sees bears targeting further tests of the ¥144.77 Nov 18 low although the Bollinger band base is expected to limit follow through. Overall a close above ¥148.37 is needed to shift focus back to 2014 highs.
RES 4: ¥148.95 High Dec 9
RES 3: ¥148.37 Hourly resistance Dec 9
RES 2: ¥147.43 21-DMA
RES 1: ¥147.15 Hourly support Dec 15 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥146.31
SUP 1: ¥145.48 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: ¥144.77 Low Nov 18
SUP 3: ¥143.82 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 134.14-149.80
SUP 4: ¥143.35 Low Nov 12
The lack of follow through on Tuesday’s rally has seen the pair looking heavy once more and pressuring the £0.7904-08 support region. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus to the £0.7832-74 region with overall focus returning to the key £0.7764-66 region. Bulls now need a close above £0.7954 to ease bearish pressure and above £0.7977 to confirm a bullish bias targeting the £0.8021-67 region
RES 4: £0.8041 Monthly High Nov 19
RES 3: £0.8021 200-DMA
RES 2: £0.7977 Hourly resistance Dec 16
RES 1: £0.7954 High Dec 17
LPRICE: £0.7915
SUP 1: £0.7908 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: £0.7904 55-DMA
SUP 3: £0.7893 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 4: £0.7874 Low Dec 12