After a quiet week on the data front we have an interesting day ahead of us.
Euro area Q3 GDP data are likely disappoint the market. France kicks off at 07:30CET and we look for a flat reading (consensus 0.2% q/q). Germany follows at 08:00CET and we expect GDP to have been flat as well in Q3 (consensus 0.1% q/q). Theaggregate euro-area number is published at 11:00 CET, where we also look for 0.0%q/q (consensus 0.1% q/q). Industrial production was weak in Q3 and retail salessuffered in September on the back of warm weather, which has delayed the purchasesof warmer clothes.
US retail sales will be important for sentiment. The September number disappointedsharply and pointed to a slowdown in US consumption – which impacted riskmarkets. Judging from weekly retail sales we could also see a soft number forOctober.
US consumer confidence from University of Michigan for November could surpriseto the upside. Especially since stock markets have rallied recently and as we haveseen a large decline in gasoline prices lately.
Also keep an eye on Fed’s Bullard (hawk, non-voter) who speaks on the USeconomy. It will be interesting to see how he views the timing of the first rate hike.Dudley yesterday repeated that he looks for a hike in mid-2015.
There are no key Scandi data releases today.
Read the full report: FX Daily