Tuesday’s bounce has again failed to break the sequence of lower daily highs with bulls continuing to look for a close above $1.2539 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 21-DMA is needed to end bearish hopes and hint at a move that targets the $1.2900-95 region. While $1.2539 caps bears retain the upper hand and favour a break of the 2014 low with overall focus on a retest of the $1.2042 2012 low.
RES 4: $1.2632 Hourly resistance Oct 30
RES 3: $1.2608 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.2591 Hourly resistance Oct 31
RES 1: $1.2539 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: $1.2476
SUP 1: $1.2448 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: $1.2395 Low Nov 11 SUP 3: $1.2357 2014 Low Nov 7
SUP 4: $1.2338 Bollinger band base
The break back above the $1.5933 level has provided bulls with a little breathing space but the $1.6010-87 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close above $1.6087 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the $1.6185-1.6228 region with overall focus then on the $1.6503-36 region where the 100-DMA is located. While the 21-DMA caps an overall bearish bias remains that sees bears targeting fresh 2014 lows and then the $1.5425-62 region.
RES 4: $1.6038 High Oct 30
RES 3: $1.6010 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.6002 High Nov 6
RES 1: $1.5945 High Nov 11
LPRICE: $1.5918
SUP 1: $1.5877 Hourly resistance Nov 11 now support
SUP 2: $1.5818 Low Nov 11
SUP 3: $1.5775 Low Sept 13 2013
SUP 4: $1.5717 High Aug 21 2013 now support
Layers of support have accumulated following the rally Tuesday that resulted in fresh 2014 and 7 year highs for the pair. Initial support is noted in the ¥114.62-115.02 region with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Overall a close below ¥113.86 is needed to hint at a deeper correction initially targeting ¥112.49-98 and then the 21-DMA at ¥110.57. While ¥114.62 supports immediate focus remains on tests of the Bollinger band top.
RES 4: ¥119.82 Monthly High Aug 8 2007
RES 3: ¥117.94 Monthly High Oct 15 2007
RES 2: ¥117.68 Bollinger band top
RES 1: ¥116.10 2014 High Nov 10
LPRICE: ¥115.33
SUP 1: ¥115.02 Hourly support Nov 11
SUP 2: ¥114.62 Hourly support Nov 11
SUP 3: ¥113.86 Low Nov 10
SUP 4: ¥112.98 Previous hourly resistance now support
After recently having found support at the Y142.06 level the sharp move higher Tuesday sees bulls firmly focused on the Y145.58-69 region where the Bollinger band top, rising channel top and 2013 high are located. Layers of support continue to accumulate with bears now needing a close below Y143.54 to ease bullish pressure and below Y142.06 to hint at a deeper correction. The key concern for bulls comes from the O/B daily studies that may begin to limit topside follow through.
RES 4: ¥145.69 2013 High Dec 27 2013
RES 3: ¥145.61 Rising short term channel top
RES 2: ¥145.58 Bollinger band top
RES 1: ¥145.10 2014 High Jan 1
LPRICE: ¥143.89
SUP 1: ¥143.76 Hourly support Nov 12
SUP 2: ¥143.54 Hourly support Nov 11
SUP 3: ¥143.05 High Nov 7 now support
SUP 4: ¥142.06 Low Nov 7
The Gbp0.7864 level continues to cap rallies, further confirming its significance as resistance. Bulls continue to look for a close above £0.7864 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above £0.7927 to confirm a break of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs, ending bearish hopes and shifting focus back to the £0.8064-67 region. While £0.7864 caps bears remain firmly focused on the £0.7764-66 region with below £0.7798 adding weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: £0.7927 High Oct 22
RES 3: £0.7890 55-DMA
RES 2: £0.7875 21-DMA
RES 1: £0.7864 Low Oct 30 now resistance
LPRICE: £0.7836
SUP 1: £0.7798 Low Nov 6
SUP 2: £0.7766 2014 Low Sept 30
SUP 3: £0.7764 2012 Low July 23 2012
SUP 4: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008
