A very busy week ahead with PMIs/ISM today, mid-term election in the US onTuesday, ECB meeting on Thursday and US non-farm on Friday.
Main focus will be on manufacturing PMIs for October, in particular Italy’s andSpain’s. We expect a slight decline in the manufacturing PMIs in both Italy and Spainbut Spain is expected to stay above 52 underscoring that the country has turned into abright spot in the euro area. In the UK the manufacturing PMI is also expected to havedeclined slightly in October.
In the US we expect ISM manufacturing to have declined to 56.0 in October from56.6 in September. Some loss of momentum in manufacturing activity in October wasalready indicated by the larger-than-expected decline in the flash estimate for Markitmanufacturing PMI in the US in October. The US auto sales data for Octoberreleased this evening will also be very interesting, as it will give us the firstindications on the development in retail sales in October.
A number of central bankers speak today. ECB Vice-president Constancio (13:00CET) and ECB board members Costa (10:30 CET) and Nouy (15:00 CET) arescheduled to speak. In the US Chicago Fed president Charles Evans (dove, voter2015) and Dallas Fed president R. Fisher (hawk, voter) will speak later today.
In the Scandi markets it is also time for PMI manufacturing.
Read the full report: FX Daily