We now expect euro-area HICP to remain unchanged at this cycle low of 0.3% inOctober. Our updated forecast followed after German inflation surprised by decliningto 0.7% in October. The weaker-than-expected figure seemed to reflect a decline ininflation on clothing and shoes, whereas the impact from the decline in the oil pricewas more modest, see Flash Comment: German inflation surprises on the downside,30 October 2014.
The unemployment rate in the euro area should stay unchanged at 11.5%. In Germanythe latest weakness in economic activity has not dragged down the unemployment rateand we expect the euro-area figure to remain unchanged.
In the US PCE for September is released and our model predicts 0.1% m/m for corePCE, meaning the yearly change continues to be 1.5%. Last week core CPI rose lessthan expected, which might contribute to a downside risk to the PCE. US personalspending is expected to drop to 0.1% (m/m) in September from 0.5% in August. Inline with the GDP figure for Q3 released yesterday, this would confirm somemoderation in consumption growth after strong spending in the past months.
In Norway it is time for labour market numbers and the credit indicator
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