US retail sales for September is due for release and we expect growth in retail sales to have slowed markedly in September as both store sales and in particular auto saleswere weak in September. Lower gasoline prices should also weigh on the headlinefigure. However, retail sales excluding autos and gasoline is still expected to show ahealthy gain in September, underscoring that underlying strength in privateconsumption remains intact. In the US producer prices and the Empire Manufacturingsurvey for the New York area will also be released today.
In the UK the September labour market report is expected to show solid gains inemployment and a continued decline in the unemployment rate. But most focus willprobably be on the wage development in August as the Bank of England has indicatedit has no intention of hiking interest rates if wage growth stays subdued below 1% y/y.
ECB president Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak twice today. First, Draghi will give abrief overview of supervisory issues and it is more likely he will speak about monetarypolicy in the evening. Focus will obviously be on how concerned Draghi is about therecent disappointing activity data and drop in inflation expectations. It will also still beinteresting to see how committed he is to expanding the ECB’s balance sheet.
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