The break back above the $1.2699-1.2716 region sees the EUR/USD flirting with the 21-DMA once again with bulls looking for a close above to ease bearish pressure and above $1.2816 to shift focus back to the $1.2995 level. Bears now need a close below $1.2699 to gain some breathing room and reconfirm immediate bearish pressure targeting the $1.2501-06 region where the Bollinger band base is located.
RES 4: $1.2902 High Sept 23
RES 3: $1.2816 Low Sept 22 now resistance
RES 2: $1.2791 High Oct 9
RES 1: $1.2736 21-DMA
LPRICE: $1.2723
SUP 1: $1.2699 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: $1.2605 Low Oct 10
SUP 3: $1.2584 Low Oct 7
SUP 4: $1.2501 2014 Low Oct 3
Bullish hopes were dealt a blow Thursday with the failure at the 21-DMA and bears taking comfort in the relatively bearish close which resulted in further losses back towards the Bollinger band base Friday. The 21-DMA failure reconfirmed bearish pressure with focus returning to the 2014 low. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint at a move back to $1.6526-36
RES 4: $1.6289 High Sept 30
RES 3: $1.620721-DMA
RES 2: $1.6151 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: $1.6135 Hourly resistance Oct 9
LPRICE: $1.6073
SUP 1: $1.6050 Low Oct 13
SUP 2: $1.6008 Low Oct 10
SUP 3: $1.5972 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.5950 Hourly support Oct 6
Initial resistance remains at Y107.60 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure whereas a close above Y108.75 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to the key Y110.09-68 region. Key concerns for bears come from O/S studies and the Bolli base but a close below Y106.76 is needed to add weight to the bearish case targeting a deeper correction to Y104.28-68.
RES 4: Y109.25 High Oct 7
RES 3: Y108.74 High Oct 8
RES 2: Y108.51 21-DMA
RES 1: Y107.60 Hourly resistance Oct 13
LPRICE: Y107.04
SUP 1: Y106.89 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: Y106.76 Hourly support Oct 14
SUP 3: Y106.04 Low Sept 10
SUP 4: Y105.72 High Sept 5 now support
The Bollinger band base appears to be limiting follow through with O/S studies also a concern but bulls now need a close above Y136.59 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to the 200-DMA (Y139.36) and then the Sept highs. Bears are now targeting the Y134.10 level and then Y131.27 overall.
RES 4: Y138.19 21-DMA
RES 3: Y137.94 Low Sept 30 now resistance, 100-DMA
RES 2: Y137.28 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: Y136.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: Y136.25
SUP 1: Y135.74 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: Y135.55 Hourly support Oct 13
SUP 3: Y134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: Y131.27 Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
Recent oscillation around the 21-DMA has resulted in a break above the Gbp0.7900 level that was capping rallies with the break higher confirming bullish pressure and shifting initial focus to the 100-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 100-DMA to add weight to the bullish case and see the pair targeting the Gbp0.8010-67 region. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.7900 to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.7950 to shift focus back to 2014 lows
RES 4: Gbp0.8067 Monthly High Sept 10
RES 3: Gbp0.8010 High Sept 16
RES 2: Gbp0.7957 100-DMA
RES 1: Gbp0.7945 Bollinger band top
LPRICE: Gbp0.7913
SUP 1: Gbp0.7900 High Oct 8 now support
SUP 2: Gbp0.7850 Low Oct 10
SUP 3: Gbp0.7820 Low Oct 3
SUP 4: Gbp0.7802 Alternating hourly support/resistance
