The recent build-up of pressure on the 21-DMA resulted in the first pop above since July but the failure to close above and relatively bearish close that resulted has given bears some comfort. Bears now look for a close below $1.2665 to reconfirm bearish pressure and shift immediate focus to the recent 2014 low. Bulls now need a close above $1.2816 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and hint at a move back to $1.2995.
RES 4: $1.2995 High Sept 16
RES 3: $1.2902 High Sept 23
RES 2: $1.2816 Low Sept 22 now resistance
RES 1: $1.2791 High Oct 9
LPRICE: $1.2702
SUP 1: $1.2665 Low Oct 9
SUP 2: $1.2584 Low Oct 7
SUP 3: $1.2515 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.2501 2014 Low Oct 3
Bullish hopes were dealt a blow on Thursday with the failure at the 21-DMA and bears taking comfort in the relatively bearish close. The 21-DMA failure has reconfirmed bearish pressure with focus having returned to the $1.5950-1.6026 support region. The Bollinger band base remains the key concern with follow through likely to be limited. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint at a move back to $1.6526-36.
RES 4: $1.6416 High Sept 23
RES 3: $1.6289 High Sept 30
RES 2: $1.6225 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.6151 Previous hourly support now resistance
LPRICE: $1.6123
SUP 1: $1.6026 Low Oct 6
SUP 2: $1.6010 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.5950 Hourly support Oct 6
SUP 4: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2012
Bears are taking significant comfort in closes below the 21-DMA which are seen adding weight to bearish case. Bulls need a close above Y108.75 to confirm a false break and target the Y110.09-68 region once more. Immediate focus remains on the Y106.81-107.03 region with the Bollinger band base expected to limit follow through. While the 21-DMA caps overall focus remains on the Y104.28-68 region last seen in early September.
RES 4: ¥110.09 2014 High Oct 1
RES 3: ¥109.25 High Oct 7
RES 2: ¥108.74 High Oct 8
RES 1: ¥108.54 21-DMA
LPRICE: ¥107.76
SUP 1: ¥107.41 Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 2: ¥107.03 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥106.81 Low Sept 16
SUP 4: ¥106.04 Low Sept 10
Rallies continue to stall ahead of the 100-DMA with bearish pressure on the ¥136.56 Oct 7 low and the Bollinger band base noted just below. The ¥137.94-138.00 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA to ease the current bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA (¥139.42). Key concerns for bears come from O/S studies that are looking to correct but while the 100-DMA caps bears retain control and target fresh 2014 lows.
RES 4: ¥138.49 21-DMA
RES 3: ¥138.00 100-DMA
RES 2: ¥137.94 Low Sept 30 now resistance
RES 1: ¥137.28 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: ¥136.89
SUP 1: ¥136.56 Low Oct 7
SUP 2: ¥136.31 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
SUP 4: ¥134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
Recent flirtations with the 21-DMA (£0.7863) have seen the EUR/GBP trading above this level today with bears now looking for a close below £0.7855 to hint at a shift in focus back to the 2012 & 2014 lows in the £0.7764-66 region. While £0.7855 supports immediate focus shifts to the £0.7915-26 region with bulls looking for a close above to add support to the case for a move back to the 200-DMA (£0.8106).
RES 4: £0.7979 Bollinger band top
RES 3: £0.7961 100-DMA, 21-WMA
RES 2: £0.7926 55-DMA
RES 1: £0.7915 High Sept 18
LPRICE: £0.7876
SUP 1: £0.7855 Low Oct 9
SUP 2: £0.7820 Low Oct 3
SUP 3: £0.7802 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 4: £0.7766 2014 Low Sept 30
