Bulls are taking a little comfort in the bounce from just short of the key $1.2500 level when combined with O/S daily studies that are overdue a correction. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.2717 to add support to the case for a correction and above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the $1.2995 level. Bears need to see a close below $1.2571 to reconfirm bearish focus and continue to target the 2012 low.
RES 4: $1.2816 Low Sept 22 now resistance
RES 3: $1.2775 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.2764 Hourly resistance Sept 25
RES 1: $1.2717 High Sept 29
LPRICE: $1.2632
SUP 1: $1.2571 Hourly support Oct 6
SUP 2: $1.2501 2014 Low Oct 3
SUP 3: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
SUP 4: $1.2241 Low Aug 10 2012
Bulls continue to take some comfort in the bounce from fresh 2014 lows combined with O/S daily studies that are overdue a correction. In saying that, the $1.6162 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to hint at further topside and above the 21-DMA to confirm. While $1.6162 caps initial focus remains on the $1.5776-1.5854 region with bears now looking for a close below $1.6026 to reconfirm bearish pressure.
RES 4: $1.6289 High Sept 30
RES 3: $1.6231 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.6162 Low Sept 16 now resistance
RES 1: $1.6129 High Oct 7
LPRICE: $1.6060
SUP 1: $1.6026 Low Oct 6
SUP 2: $1.5950 Hourly support Oct 6
SUP 3: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2012
SUP 4: $1.5776 Low Sept 13 2012
Bears are taking significant comfort in the first close below the 21-DMA since late July with the close adding weight to bearish case. Bulls now need a close above ¥108.65 to confirm a false break and target the ¥110.09-68 region. Immediate focus now shifts to the ¥106.75-107.41 region with the Bollinger band base expected to limit follow through below ¥106.75. While the 21-DMA caps overall focus has shifted to the ¥104.28-68 region.
RES 4: ¥110.09 2014 High Oct 1
RES 3: ¥109.25 High Oct 7
RES 2: ¥108.65 Previous daily support now resistance
RES 1: ¥108.48 21-DMA
LPRICE: ¥108.33
SUP 1: ¥107.75 Hourly support Oct 8
SUP 2: ¥107.41 Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 3: ¥106.81 Low Sept 16
SUP 4: ¥106.75 Bollinger band base
The correction lower from the Sept monthly high continues with the close below the 100-DMA last Wednesday seeing immediate focus return to the 2014 low. The ¥137.94-138.04 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA (¥138.04) to ease the current bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA (¥139.48). Key concerns for bears come from O/S studies and Bollinger band base.
RES 4: ¥138.59 21-DMA
RES 3: ¥138.04 100-DMA
RES 2: ¥137.94 Low Sept 30 now resistance
RES 1: ¥137.32 Hourly resistance Oct 7
LPRICE: ¥136.86
SUP 1: ¥136.79 Hourly support Oct 8
SUP 2: ¥136.56 Low Oct 7, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
SUP 4: ¥134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
The recovery from just short of the 2012 low has now seen the EUR/GBP flirting with 21-DMA. Bulls will continue to look for a close above the £0.7897 resistance to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially target the 100-DMA with a close above then confirming a shift in focus back to the Sept monthly high. Bears continue to look for a close below £0.7820 to reconfirm bearish pressure and the focus on the 2012 low.
RES 4: £0.7965 100-DMA
RES 3: £0.7927 55-DMA
RES 2: £0.7897 Hourly resistance Sept 18
RES 1: £0.7877 21-DMA
LPRICE: £0.7863
SUP 1: £0.7820 Low Oct 3
SUP 2: £0.7802 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 3: £0.7766 2014 Low Sept 30
SUP 4: £0.7764 2012 Low July 23 2012
