The day starts with German industrial production for August and followingyesterday’s disappointing factory orders we have revised our forecast lower to -1.8m/m. This would bring production back around the level at the end of Q2 andsuggests only a modest rebound in Q3. We expect a gradual recovery to set in at theend of the year, which should be driven by strong US growth and the weakening ofthe EUR, which will gradually help competitiveness of euro-area firms.
In the US Fed’s Kockerlakota (voter, dovish) and Dudley (voter, dovish) speaktonight. Focus will again be on changes in views and comments related to the Fed’sforward guidance. However, after the Fed yesterday published its new Labour MarketConditions Index for assessing the changes in labour market conditions, it will beinteresting to see whether Fed members will start to refer to this indicator in speeches.
In Scandi markets, Norwegian manufacturing production is the highlight today,although data on the Swedish government’s net lending may also attract attention.
Read the full report: FX Daily