Bulls are taking a little comfort in the bounce from just short of the key $1.2500 level when combined with O/S daily studies that are overdue a correction. In saying that, bulls now need a close above $1.2717 to add support to the case for a correction and above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the $1.2995 level. Bears now look for a close below $1.2571 to reconfirm bearish focus and continue to target the 2012 low.
RES 4: $1.2816 Low Sept 22 now resistance
RES 3: $1.2788 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.2764 Hourly resistance Sept 25
RES 1: $1.2717 High Sept 29
LPRICE: $1.2618
SUP 1: $1.2571 Hourly support Oct 6
SUP 2: $1.2501 2014 Low Oct 3
SUP 3: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
SUP 4: $1.2241 Low Aug 10 2012
Time spent below the 200-WMA ($1.6012) following last week’s close below has so far been brief. Monday’s bounce has eased the bearish pressure a little and provided bulls with a little comfort when combined with the O/S daily studies. In saying that, the $1.6162 resistance is now key with bulls needing a close above to hint at further topside and above the 21-DMA to confirm. While $1.6162 caps initial focus remains on the $1.5776-1.5854 region.
RES 4: $1.6289 High Sept 30
RES 3: $1.6231 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.6162 Low Sept 16 now resistance
RES 1: $1.6100 High Oct 6
LPRICE: $1.6054
SUP 1: $1.5950 Hourly support Oct 6
SUP 2: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2012
SUP 3: $1.5776 Low Sept 13 2012
SUP 4: $1.5686 Low Sept 10 2012
The 21-DMA confirmed its significance as support Friday with USD/JPY bouncing sharply from two days of losses to reconfirm bullish pressure and the ¥110.68 target. Bears now look for a close below last week’s ¥108.00 low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a deeper correction that initially targets the ¥104.68-105.05 region where the 55-DMA is located. While the ¥108.00-43 region supports bulls initially target ¥110.68 and then the ¥114.65 Dec 2007 monthly high above.
RES 4: ¥114.65 Monthly High Dec 2007
RES 3: ¥112.01 2008 High Jan 2 2008
RES 2: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 15 2008
RES 1: ¥110.09 2014 High Oct 1
LPRICE: ¥108.79
SUP 1: ¥108.65 Low Oct 6
SUP 2: ¥108.43 21-DMA
SUP 3: ¥108.00 Low Oct 2
SUP 4: ¥107.41 Previous daily resistance now support
The correction lower from the Sept monthly high continues with the close below the 100-DMA last Wednesday seeing immediate focus return to the 2014 low. Initial resistance is noted at the ¥137.94 level with bulls needing a close above to provide some breathing space. Overall a close above the 100-DMA is needed to confirm an easing of bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA is needed to hint at a shift higher in focus.
RES 4: ¥138.80 High Oct 1
RES 3: ¥138.65 21-DMA
RES 2: ¥138.06 100-DMA
RES 1: ¥137.94 Low Sept 30 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥137.34
SUP 1: ¥136.86 Low Oct 3
SUP 2: ¥136.81 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
SUP 4: ¥134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
Recent attempts to take out the 2012 low have been well and truly rebuffed with the sharp bounce last Thursday easing bearish pressure and shifting immediate focus to the £0.7878-97 region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below £0.7820 to ease the renewed bullish pressure and below £0.7802 to reconfirm focus on the 2012 low. Bulls look for a close above £0.7897 to target Sept monthly highs.
RES 4: £0.7967 100-DMA
RES 3: £0.7928 55-DMA
RES 2: £0.7897 Hourly resistance Sept 18
RES 1: £0.7878 21-DMA
LPRICE: £0.7863
SUP 1: £0.7820 Low Oct 3
SUP 2: £0.7802 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 3: £0.7766 2014 Low Sept 30
SUP 4: £0.7764 2012 Low July 23 2012
