In the US focus turns to ISM manufacturing for September. It has surprisedclearly to the upside in the past months but we think it is time for some moderation. Ithas shown frequent overshooting in the past year, both to the up- and downsidecompared to Markit PMI and is currently running higher. Although activity is strongin the US, it is not as strong as indicated by ISM.
ADP employment in the US will also catch some attention as input for theexpectations about Friday’s payroll number. Consensus looks for 200k. We see someupside risk to this.
This morning the final manufacturing PMIs out of the euro area are due forrelease, providing details for the rest of the euro area outside Germany and France.
The UK publishes the first release of PMI manufacturing for September. It hasshown a clear decline in the past months and given the decline in Germany we expectsome downside here as well. Consensus is for a small rise from 52.5 to 52.7.
In Scandinavia Sweden and Norway will release September manufacturing PMIs.
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