The Bollinger band base appears to be limiting downside follow through but bears remain firmly in control as the EUR/USD hovers precariously above the Nov 2012 monthly low. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls now needing a close above $1.2838 to ease bearish pressure. Overall the $1.2995 level remains key with a close above needed to shift immediate focus to the $1.3110-1.3222 region. Below $1.2660 is needed to see bears target $1.2241-1.2465.
RES 4: $1.2801 Hourly resistance Sept 24
RES 3: $1.2784 Hourly resistance Sept 25
RES 2: $1.2764 Hourly resistance Sept 25
RES 1: $1.2717 High Sept 29
LPRICE: $1.2692
SUP 1: $1.2660 Monthly Low Nov 13 2012
SUP 2: $1.2581 Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
SUP 4: $1.2241 Low Aug 10 2012
After looking comfortable below the 21-DMA ($1.6293) Friday GBP/USD extended its loss into the end of the week with the relatively bearish close and further losses Monday confirming a shift in focus back to the 2014 low. Bulls need a close above $1.6343 to ease bearish pressure while a close above $1.6414 is needed to shift immediate focus to the $1.6535 level. The Bollinger band base comes in around $1.6109 today and is not currently an issue for bears.
RES 4: $1.6414 High Sept 23
RES 3: $1.6373 Hourly support Sept 24 now resistance
RES 2: $1.6343 Hourly resistance Sept 25
RES 1: $1.6275 High Sept 29
LPRICE: $1.6260
SUP 1: $1.6162 Low Sept 16
SUP 2: $1.6109 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.6091 100-WMA
SUP 4: $1.6052 2014 low Sept 10
The ¥108.25-46 region remains key support with bears continuing to look for a close below ¥108.25 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. This would then shift immediate focus to the 21-DMA (¥107.52) with a close below needed to hint at a deeper move lower. While the ¥108.25-46 region supports bulls continue to retain the upper hand and target the Aug 2008 monthly high at ¥110.68. The key concern for bulls remains the O/B daily studies but while ¥108.25 supports bulls continue to dominate.
RES 4: ¥112.01 2008 High Jan 2 2008
RES 3: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 15 2008
RES 2: ¥110.65 Bollinger band top
RES 1: ¥109.74 High Sept 29
LPRICE: ¥109.28
SUP 1: ¥108.85 Hourly support Sept 26
SUP 2: ¥108.46 Hourly support Sept 24
SUP 3: ¥108.25 Low Sept 23
SUP 4: ¥107.39 High Sept 12 now support
The 21-DMA provided a base for last week’s sell-off with it bouncing from around this level Thursday & Friday. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to reconfirm bearish pressure, shifting immediate focus to the 55-DMA and overall focus back to the 2014 low. Bulls now need a close above ¥139.15 to ease bearish pressure a little and a close above the 200-DMA to shift overall focus back to the ¥141.25 recent high.
RES 4: ¥140.62 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 3: ¥140.33 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: ¥139.69 200-DMA
RES 1: ¥139.15 Hourly resistance Sept 25
LPRICE: ¥138.72
SUP 1: ¥138.54 21-DMA
SUP 2: ¥138.15 100-DMA
SUP 3: ¥137.64 55-DMA
SUP 4: ¥137.29 Low Sept 10
Bears have the 2012 low firmly in their sights with a close below then shifting focus to the £0.7597 2008 March monthly low. Daily studies remain at O/S levels and combined with Bollinger band base (£0.7761) are seen as key concerns for bears and likely to limit downside follow through. Bulls now need to see a close above £0.7851 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the 100-DMA.
RES 4: £0.7912 21-DMA
RES 3: £0.7897 Hourly resistance Sept 18
RES 2: £0.7851 High Sept 24
RES 1: £0.7830 High Sept 25
LPRICE: £0.7804
SUP 1: £0.7791 2014 Low Sept 25
SUP 2: £0.7764 2012 Low July 23 2012
SUP 3: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008
SUP 4: £0.7597 Monthly Low Mar 10 2008
