Friday’s bearish close saw fresh 2014 lows to start the new week with bears firmly focused on the 2013 low at $1.2745. The $1.2976-95 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure. This would also see the immediate focus shift to the $1.3110-1.3222 region. O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears but while the $1.2976-95 region caps lower levels remain favoured.
RES 4: $1.2995 High Sept 16
RES 3: $1.2976 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.2931 High Sept 19
RES 1: $1.2891 Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: $1.2855
SUP 1: $1.2830 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.2816 2014 Low Sept 22
SUP 3: $1.2745 2013 Low Apr 4 2013
SUP 4: $1.2741 Bollinger band base
The sequence of higher daily lows continues with Tuesday’s close above the 21-DMA adding some support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure whereas a close below $1.6301 is now needed to shift focus back to the 100 & 200-WMAs and the 2014 low. The $1.6536 resistance level remains key with a close above seeing immediate focus shift to the $1.6646-1.6783 region where key DMAs are located.
RES 4: $1.6691 200-DMA
RES 3: $1.6652 Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.6646 High Sept 1
RES 1: $1.6536 Low Aug 25 now resistance, 55-WMA
LPRICE: $1.6409
SUP 1: $1.6359 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6301 Low Sept 23
SUP 3: $1.6240 Hourly support Sept 16
SUP 4: $1.6162 Low Sept 16
Hesitation ahead of the recent fresh 2014 and 6 year highs is becoming a concern for bulls especially when combined with daily studies at O/B levels that are looking to correct. Bears now need a close below ¥108.25 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure whereas a close below ¥107.39 remains needed to hint at a deeper correction. Layers of resistance have started to accumulate with bulls now needing a close above ¥108.99 to reconfirm bullish pressure and focus on the ¥110.68 Aug 2010 monthly high.
RES 4: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 15 2008
RES 3: ¥109.45 Hourly resistance Sept 19
RES 2: ¥109.19 High Sept 22
RES 1: ¥108.99 High Sept 23
LPRICE: ¥108.55
SUP 1: ¥108.25 Low Sept 23
SUP 2: ¥107.39 High Sept 12 now support
SUP 3: ¥106.64 Low Sept 11
SUP 4: ¥106.50 21-DMA
The lack of follow through and relatively bearish close following Friday’s spike to fresh 4 month highs is a concern for bulls. The pair is currently flirting with the 200-DMA (¥139.76) with bears now looking for a close below ¥139.12 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Bears then look for a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a deeper downside correction. Bulls need a close above ¥140.62 to provide some breathing room but the Bollinger band top (¥140.84) is likely to limit follow through.
RES 4: ¥144.44 Low Dec 31 2013 now resistance
RES 3: ¥143.82 Monthly high Mar 7
RES 2: ¥140.62 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: ¥140.33 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: ¥139.53
SUP 1: ¥139.27 Low Sept 23
SUP 2: ¥139.12 Hourly support Sept 17
SUP 3: ¥138.22 100-DMA
SUP 4: ¥138.19 21-DMA
Bears continue to dominate with the rally Tuesday remaining capped ahead of initial resistance and confirming the significance of the £0.7897-0.7958 resistance region. Daily studies remain O/S and the Bollinger band base remains an issue for bears but bulls need a close above £0.7897 to ease bearish pressure and above £0.7958 to shift immediate focus to the 100-DMA (£0.7997). Immediate focus remains on the 2012 low.
RES 4: £0.7958 Hourly resistance Sept 17
RES 3: £0.7935 21-DMA
RES 2: £0.7925 Hourly support Sept 17 now resistance
RES 1: £0.7897 Hourly resistance Sept 18
LPRICE: £0.7832
SUP 1: £0.7812 Low Aug 16 2012
SUP 2: £0.7764 2012 Low July 23 2012
SUP 3: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008
SUP 4: £0.7597 Monthly Low Mar 10 2008
