Friday’s bearish close saw fresh 2014 lows to start the new week with bears firmly focused on the 2013 low at $1.2745. The $1.2991-95 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure. This would also see the immediate focus shift to the $1.3110-1.3222 region. O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears but while the $1.2991-95 region caps bears remain in control.
RES 4: $1.3050 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 3: $1.2995 High Sept 16
RES 2: $1.2991 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.2910 Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: $1.2852
SUP 1: $1.2829 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.2816 2014 Low Sept 22
SUP 3: $1.2749 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.2745 2013 Low Apr 4 2013
Last week’s roller coaster ride saw GBP/USD top out ahead of the $1.6535 resistance level and 55-WMA with bears taking comfort in Friday’s correction lower. The $1.6240 support now becomes key once again with bears looking for a close below to reconfirm bearish pressure and shift focus back to the 2014 low. Bulls now look for a close above $1.6409 to provide some breathing room and above $1.6535 to shift overall focus higher to key DMAs clustered $1.6691-1.6789.
RES 4: $1.6690 200-DMA
RES 3: $1.6646 High Sept 1
RES 2: $1.6536 Low Aug 25 now resistance, 55-WMA
RES 1: $1.6410 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: $1.6384
SUP 1: $1.6323 Hourly support Sept 22
SUP 2: $1.6240 Hourly support Sept 16
SUP 3: $1.6233 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.6162 Low Sept 16
Fresh 2014 and 6 year highs continued for USD/JPY last week with bulls firmly focused on the ¥110.68 level. Initial support remains on the hourlies in the ¥108.32-59 region with bears needing a close below ¥108.32 to ease bearish pressure a little. A close below ¥107.39 is then needed to hint at a deeper correction that initially targets the 200-DMA. The Bollinger band top comes in at ¥109.84 today and is expected to continue to limit topside follow through above this level.
RES 4: ¥114.64 Monthly High Dec 27 2007
RES 3: ¥112.01 2008 High Jan 2 2008
RES 2: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 15 2008
RES 1: ¥109.45 Hourly resistance Sept 19
LPRICE: ¥108.74
SUP 1: ¥108.59 Hourly support Sept 19
SUP 2: ¥108.32 Hourly support Sept 17
SUP 3: ¥107.39 High Sept 12 now support
SUP 4: ¥106.64 Low Sept 11
The lack of follow through and relatively bearish close following Friday’s spike to fresh 4 month highs is a concern for bulls following the solid rally so far this month. The pair is currently flirting with the 200-DMA (¥139.78) with bears looking for a close below ¥139.64 to confirm a break. Bears will then look for a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a deeper downside correction. Bulls need a close above ¥140.62 to provide some breathing room but the Bollinger band top (¥140.67) is likely to limit follow through.
RES 4: ¥144.44 Low Dec 31 2013 now resistance
RES 3: ¥143.82 Monthly high Mar 7
RES 2: ¥140.62 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: ¥140.33 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: ¥139.75
SUP 1: ¥139.64 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: ¥139.12 Hourly support Sept 17
SUP 3: ¥138.24 100-DMA
SUP 4: ¥138.07 21-DMA
The EUR/GBP initially remained heavy Friday with the dip to fresh 2014 and 25 month lows providing bears with confidence although the lack of follow through and bounce from the lows is a concern for bears. Daily studies remain O/S and the Bollinger band base remains an issue for bears but bulls need a close above £0.7925 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the 100-DMA (£0.8001).
RES 4: £0.7958 Hourly resistance Sept 17
RES 3: £0.7941 21-DMA
RES 2: £0.7925 Hourly support Sept 17 now resistance
RES 1: £0.7897 Hourly resistance Sept 18
LPRICE: £0.7841
SUP 1: £0.7812 Low Aug 16 2012
SUP 2: £0.7764 2012 Low July 23 2012
SUP 3: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008
SUP 4: £0.7597 Monthly Low Mar 10 2008
