The inability of the euro to take out the $1.2995 level has resulted in a resumption of the sell-off and reconfirmation of bearish pressure. Immediate bearish focus now shifts to the $1.2732-78 region where the falling daily channel base, Bollinger band base and 2013 are located. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.2995 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with above $1.3110 needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus higher
RES 4: $1.3050 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 3: $1.3042 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.2995 High Sept 16
RES 1: $1.2909 Low Sept 12 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.2860
SUP 1: $1.2834 2014 Low Sept 18
SUP 2: $1.2778 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.2745 2013 Low Apr 4 2013
SUP 4: $1.2732 Falling daily channel base
Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through on Wednesday’s rally with $1.6240 confirmed as support. Bears now look for a close below $1.6240 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure with focus then returning to the $1.6048-1.6162 region. Daily studies have returned to more neutral levels and are no longer the issue for bears they previously were. Bulls need to see consolidation above $1.6240 to provide a platform for further rallies.
RES 4: $1.6499 High Sept 3
RES 3: $1.6440 Low Sept 3 now resistance
RES 2: $1.6392 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.6358 High Sept 17
LPRICE: $1.6260
SUP 1: $1.6240 Hourly support Sept 16
SUP 2: $1.6162 Low Sept 16
SUP 3: $1.6048 Low Nov 15 2013
SUP 4: $1.6007 200-WMA
The recent pause at Y107.39 gave the Bollinger band top time to work its way higher with the rally Wednesday having headed higher to close marginally above. The move higher reconfirms bullish focus on the Y110.68 Aug 2008 monthly high with bears needing a close below the Y107.39 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. As is often the case, the Bollinger band top is expected to limit topside follow through as the pair works its way higher.
RES 4: Y114.64 Monthly High Dec 27 2007
RES 3: Y112.01 2008 High Jan 2 2008
RES 2: Y110.68 Monthly High Aug 15 2008
RES 1: Y109.17 Monthly High Sept 2 2008
LPRICE: Y108.82
SUP 1: Y108.32 Hourly support Sept 17
SUP 2: Y107.39 High Sept 12 now support
SUP 3: Y106.64 Low Sept 11
SUP 4: Y106.52 Hourly support Sept 10
Bulls dominate with the continuation higher seeing the ERU/JPY probing the key Y139.80-140.11 resistance region. As a result the pair is now trading above the 200-DMA and the long term falling daily trend line with a close above seen adding support to the bullish case and shifting immediate focus to the Y140.91-98 region. The Bollinger top remains they key concern and may limit follow through but bears need a close below Y139.12 to ease bullish pressure
RES 4: Y140.98 High May 13
RES 3: Y140.91 61.8% Fibonacci 142.51-135.73
RES 2: Y140.11 Monthly high June 9
RES 1: Y139.92 50.0% Fibonacci 142.51-135.73
LPRICE: Y139.88
SUP 1: Y139.67 High Sept 17 now support
SUP 2: Y139.12 Hourly support Sept 17
SUP 3: Y138.30 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y138.10 Hourly support Sept 11
The failed attempt at the 100-DMA Tuesday resulted in a sharp sell-off Wednesday that has seen immediate focus return to the 2014 lows and overall focus to the 2012 low at Gbp0.7764. Layers of resistance have accumulated with bulls needing a close above Gbp0.7979 to confirm a break of the 21 & 55-DMAs and shift focus back to the 100-DMA. The key concern for bears is the Bollinger band base which may limit downside follow through.
RES 4: Gbp0.8012 100-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.7979 Hourly resistance Sept 16
RES 2: Gbp0.7958 Hourly resistance Sept 17
RES 1: Gbp0.7925 Hourly support Sept 17 now resistance
LPRICE: Gbp0.7891
SUP 1: Gbp0.7890 Low Sept 17
SUP 2: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
SUP 3: Gbp0.7829 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: Gbp0.7812 Low Aug 16 2012
