Thursday’s rally again stalled ahead of initial resistance noted in the $1.2963-89 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.2989 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above $1.3161 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to the $1.3300-35 region. While $1.2989 caps bears remain firmly focused on 2013 lows. The key concerns for bears remain O/S studies and the Bollinger band bases.
RES 4: $1.3110 Low Sept 2 now resistance
RES 3: $1.3050 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 2: $1.2989 High Sept 5
RES 1: $1.2963 High Sept 10
LPRICE: $1.2918
SUP 1: $1.2859 2014 Low Sept 9
SUP 2: $1.2745 2013 Low Apr 4 2013
SUP 3: $1.2660 Monthly Low Nov 13 2012
SUP 4: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
The recovery from below the 100-WMA has seen the pair capped around the $1.6281 resistance level confirming its significance. Bulls continue to look for a close above Friday’s $1.6281 low to ease bearish pressure with a close above $1.6440 needed to shift immediate focus to layers of resistance $1.6499-1.6650. Initial support is now noted in the $1.6187-1.6214 region with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish pressure and target $1.6005-48
RES 4: $1.6465 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.6440 Low Sept 3 now resistance
RES 2: $1.6350 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 1: $1.6281 Low Sept 5 Now resistance
LPRICE: $1.6238
SUP 1: $1.6214 Hourly support Sept 11
SUP 2: $1.6187 Low Sept 11
SUP 3: $1.6048 Low Nov 15 2013
SUP 4: $1.6005 200-WMA
There is no stopping USD/JPY at the moment as bulls remain firmly focused on the Aug 2008 monthly high at Y110.68. Layers of support are accumulating but bears now look for a close below Y106.52 to ease bullish pressure with a close below Y106.03 needed to shift immediate focus back to the 21-DMA. The daily Bollinger band top comes in around Y107.41 today and appears to be limiting follow through at present as is often the case.
RES 4: Y114.65 Monthly High Dec 2007
RES 3: Y110.68 Monthly High Aug 2008
RES 2: Y109.17 Monthly High Sept 2 2008
RES 1: Y107.98 High Sept 19 2008
LPRICE: Y107.26
SUP 1: Y106.64 Low Sept 11
SUP 2: Y106.52 Hourly support Sept 10
SUP 3: Y106.03 Hourly support Sept 9
SUP 4: Y105.71 Previous 2014 High Sept 4 now support
The rally continues with bulls taking comfort from the first close above the 100-DMA since the break lower in early May which adds support to the bullish case. Focus now shifts to layers of resistance in the Y139.85-140.09 region which includes the 200-DMA, 50.0% Fibonacci level and June monthly highs. Initial support has now developed on the hourlies at Y138.10 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure.
RES 4: Y139.92 50.0% Fibonacci 142.51-135.73
RES 3: Y139.85 200-DMA
RES 2: Y139.31 Monthly high July 3
RES 1: Y138.76 High July 9
LPRICE: Y138.58
SUP 1: Y138.10 Hourly support Sept 11
SUP 2: Y137.65 Hourly support Sept 10
SUP 3: Y137.28 Hourly support Sept 10
SUP 4: Y136.99 High Sept 8 now support
Following on from the sharp correction lower Wednesday the EUR/GBP is now flirting with the 55-DMA (Gbp0.7954) as it begins to look comfortable below the 21-DMA (Gbp0.7973). Bulls now need to see a close above Gbp0.8003 to ease the bearish pressure a little and above the 100-DMA to shift focus back to the Gbp0.8066 level. While Gbp0.8003 caps bears again remain focused on the 2014 low with a break lower seeing focus shift to 2012 lows.
RES 4: Gbp0.8066 Low June 11 now resistance
RES 3: Gbp0.8023 100-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8003 Hourly resistance Sept 10
RES 1: Gbp0.7977 Hourly resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: Gbp0.7959
SUP 1: Gbp0.7938 Low Sept 11
SUP 2: Gbp0.7919 Low Sept 5
SUP 3: Gbp0.7892 Low Sept 1
SUP 4: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
