Wednesday’s attempted recovery off 2014 lows traded marginally above the previous $1.2960 resistance level with initial resistance now noted in the $1.2963-89 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.2989 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above $1.3161 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to the $1.3300-35 region. The key concerns for bears remain O/S studies and the Bollinger band bases
RES 4: $1.3110 Low Sept 2 now resistance
RES 3: $1.3050 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 2: $1.2989 High Sept 5
RES 1: $1.2963 High Sept 10
LPRICE: $1.2907
SUP 1: $1.2859 2014 Low Sept 9
SUP 2: $1.2745 2013 Low Apr 4 2013
SUP 3: $1.2660 Monthly Low Nov 13 2012
SUP 4: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
Time spent below the 100-WMA ($1.6083) has so far been short with GBP/USD bouncing a from just short of the $1.6048 Nov 15 2013 low Tuesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above Friday’s $1.6281 low to ease bearish pressure with a close above $1.6440 needed to shift immediate focus to layers of resistance $1.6499-1.6650. O/S daily studies and proximity of Bollinger band bases remain concerns for bears and may continue to limit follow through.
RES 4: $1.6440 Low Sept 3 now resistance
RES 3: $1.6350 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 2: $1.6281 Low Sept 5 Now resistance
RES 1: $1.6233 Hourly resistance Sept 8
LPRICE: $1.6200
SUP 1: $1.6187 Hourly support Sept 11
SUP 2: $1.6048 Low Nov 15 2013
SUP 3: $1.6004 200-WMA
SUP 4: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2013
The bounce from last week’s dip back to Y104.68 resulted in fresh 2014 and 6 year highs again with overall focus on the Aug 2008 monthly high at Y110.68. Initial support is now noted in the Y105.71-106.52 region with a close below needed to ease bullish pressure a little but a close below Y104.68 remains needed to see cracks appearing in the up-trend. Key concerns for bulls remain O/B studies and Bollinger band tops
RES 4: Y110.68 Monthly High Aug 2008 2008
RES 3: Y109.17 Monthly High Sept 2 2008
RES 2: Y107.98 High Sept 19 2008
RES 1: Y106.99 High Sept 25 2008
LPRICE: Y106.91
SUP 1: Y106.52 Hourly support Sept 10
SUP 2: Y106.03 Hourly support Sept 9
SUP 3: Y105.71 Previous 2014 High Sept 4 now support
SUP 4: Y104.68 Low Sept 5
The recovery from just short of the 2014 low continued with the EUR/JPY pausing ahead of layers of resistance in Y138.29-48 that includes the Bollinger band top, Fibonacci level and 100-DMA. In saying that, bulls continue to retain the upper hand with a close below Y136.99 needed to ease bullish pressure. Bulls look for a close above Y138.48 to shift focus to the 200-DMA but remain wary of the Bollinger band top which may limit follow through.
RES 4: Y138.48 High July 15
RES 3: Y138.41 100-DMA
RES 2: Y138.32 38.2% Fibonacci 142.51-135.73
RES 1: Y138.29 Bollinger band top
LPRICE: Y138.07
SUP 1: Y137.65 Hourly support Sept 10
SUP 2: Y137.28 Hourly support Sept 10
SUP 3: Y136.99 High Sept 8 now support
SUP 4: Y136.59 Hourly support Sept 8
EUR/GBP finally managed to take out the Gbp0.8036 previous resistance level but the move higher was short lived. The dramatic correction lower from above the 100-DMA and Bollinger band top combined with a relatively bearish close sees bears regain the upper hand with a close below the 55-DMA now needed to add weight to the bearish case and target 2014 lows. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8067 to shift focus to the 200-DMA.
RES 4: Gbp0.8066 Low June 11 now resistance
RES 3: Gbp0.8029 100-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8003 Hourly resistance Sept 10
RES 1: Gbp0.7977 Hourly resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: Gbp0.7968
SUP 1: Gbp0.7955 55-DMA
SUP 2: Gbp0.7919 Low Sept 5
SUP 3: Gbp0.7892 Low Sept 1
SUP 4: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
