The EUR/USD again managed fresh 2014 and 14 month Tuesday before bouncing a little only to remain capped ahead of the Sept 6 hourly resistance. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.2989 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21-DMA ($1.3164) is needed to shift initial focus to the $1.3300-35 region. The key concerns for bears remain O/S studies and the Bollinger band bases.
RES 4: $1.3110 Low Sept 2 now resistance
RES 3: $1.3050 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 2: $1.2989 High Sept 5
RES 1: $1.2960 Hourly resistance Sept 6
LPRICE: $1.2925
SUP 1: $1.2902 Hourly support Sept 9
SUP 2: $1.2859 2014 Low Sept 9
SUP 3: $1.2745 2013 Low Apr 4 2013
SUP 4: $1.2660 Monthly Low Nov 13 2012
Time spent below the 100-WMA ($1.6083) has so far been short with GBP/USD bouncing a little from just short of the $1.6048 Nov 15 2013 low Tuesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above Friday’s $1.6281 low to ease bearish pressure with a close above $1.6440 needed to shift immediate focus to layers of resistance $1.6499-1.6650. O/S daily studies and proximity of Bollinger band bases remain concerns for bears and may continue to limit follow through for the time being In saying that, overall focus remains on the Nov monthly low from 2013 at $1.5854.
RES 4: $1.6350 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 3: $1.6281 Low Sept 5 Now resistance
RES 2: $1.6233 Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 1: $1.6187 Hourly resistance Sept 8
LPRICE: $1.6111
SUP 1: $1.6048 Low Nov 15 2013
SUP 2: $1.6004 200-WMA
SUP 3: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2013
SUP 4: $1.5775 Low Sept 12 2013
The bounce from last week’s dip back to ¥104.68 resulted in fresh 2014 and 6 year highs Monday and Tuesday with overall focus having shifted to the Aug 2008 monthly high at ¥110.68. Initial support is now noted in the ¥105.71-106.03 region with a close below needed to ease bullish pressure a little but a close below ¥104.68 remains needed to see cracks appearing in the up-trend. Key concerns for bulls remain O/B studies and Bollinger band tops but for now its onward and upward.
RES 4: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 2008 2008
RES 3: ¥109.17 Monthly High Sept 2 2008
RES 2: ¥107.98 High Sept 19 2008
RES 1: ¥106.99 High Sept 25 2008
LPRICE: ¥106.42
SUP 1: ¥106.03 Hourly support Sept 9
SUP 2: ¥105.71 Previous 2014 High Sept 4 now support
SUP 3: ¥104.68 Low Sept 5
SUP 4: ¥104.39 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support
Tuesday’s close above the 21-DMA has confirmed an easing of bearish pressure with immediate bullish focus now having shifted to the ¥138.02-32 region where the Bollinger band top and 38.2% Fibonacci level are located. The key concern for bulls will be the Bollinger band top which may initially limit follow through. Bears now need to see a close below ¥136.99 to ease the renewed bullish pressure and below ¥136.59 to target 2014 lows.
RES 4: ¥138.32 38.2% Fibonacci 142.51-135.73
RES 3: ¥138.11 Bollinger band top
RES 2: ¥138.02 High Sept 4
RES 1: ¥137.68 Previous hourly support now resistance
LPRICE: ¥137.54
SUP 1: ¥137.28 Hourly support Sept 10
SUP 2: ¥136.99 High Sept 8 now support
SUP 3: ¥136.59 Hourly support Sept 8
SUP 4: ¥135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
The £0.8036 resistance level continues to confirm its significance with rallies Monday and Tuesday stalling at this level. Bulls really need a close above £0.8051 to confirm a clean break and shift focus to the 200-DMA (£0.8162) with a close above last seen in Oct 2013. It should be noted that previous failures at £0.8036 have resulted in sharp sell-offs towards 2014 lows with bears looking for a close below £0.7977 to shift focus lower.
RES 4: £0.8051 Low June 11 now resistance
RES 3: £0.8049 Bollinger band top
RES 2: £0.8036 Monthly High Aug 14
RES 1: £0.8029 100-DMA
LPRICE: £0.8019
SUP 1: £0.7977 Hourly support Sept 8
SUP 2: £0.7958 High Sept 5 now support
SUP 3: £0.7919 Low Sept 5
SUP 4: £0.7892 Low Sept 1
