Focus is on the US labour market report for August. We look for a positivesurprise with a solid increase in non-farm payrolls of 260,000 (consensus 230,000)and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.1%. Continuously low jobless claim figures, a very high ISM employment index as well as optimistic hiring plans are the main reasons for theestimate. Moreover, service payrolls in the July report came out low at 140,000 andwe expect a decent rebound, pulling up the total non-farm forecast. Only weak spot inthe range of job data recently was the ADP employment number yesterday, showing arise in private employment of 204k. However, the monthly changes in ADP are notnormally a very good predictor of monthly changes in non-farm payrolls.
Also in the US, Fed’s Rosengren (dovish, non-voter) speaks and any commentsrelated to the labour market report and changes to the Fed statement will be in focus.
In Europe German industrial production for July is released. Following thestrong German factory orders we have revised our forecast up to 1.2% m/m. Thefigure for orders confirmed our view that the economic weakness in Q2 wastemporary and that the German economy will expand again in Q3.
The second release of euro GDP growth should confirm the stagnation in Q2 butwe expect the first release of the underlying components to reveal a rise in privateconsumption from 0.2% q/q to 0.3% q/q, while investments declined 1.0% q/q.
In Scandinavia it is time for industrial production data in both Sweden and Norway.
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