Main event is the ECB meeting. We do not expect rate cuts or QE in connection withthe meeting but all options are expected to be left open. After Draghi’s dovish speechat Jackson Hole the statement could include comments that there are signs thatmedium-term inflation expectations have started to de-anchor and that the ECB isready to go down the QE path in case it continues. We expect the ECB to reveal moredetails about the ABS programme, which should contribute to further credit easing.
In the US, focus is on the labour market ahead of Friday’s job report. We look for apositive surprise with a solid increase in non-farm payrolls of 260,000. ADPemployment and initial jobless claims are due for release. The latter have been verylow in historical context and point to robust job market.
In the UK the Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged. Minutes from themeeting (due in two weeks) will be more interesting, as they will give informationwhether the balance of the board has tilted towards the hawks. Minutes from theAugust meeting showed a split vote of 7-2 in favour of keeping rates unchanged.
We expect the Swedish Riksbank’s meeting to yield little out of the ordinary.
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