Layers of resistance continue to develop as the EUR/USD works its way lower, again setting fresh 2014 and 11 month lows. Bounces are currently non-existent with bearish pressure dominating and bears initially focused on the $1.3064-1.3101 region with overall focus on 2013 lows. Bulls now need a close above $1.3220 to ease bearish pressure a little and above the 21-DMA ($1.3331) to shift focus back to the $1.3445-85 region.
RES 4: $1.3298 Hourly resistance Aug 20
RES 3: $1.3262 Hourly resistance Aug 22
RES 2: $1.3220 Low Aug 22 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3177 Hourly support Aug 26 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.3160
SUP 1: $1.3101 Monthly Low Sept 7 2013
SUP 2: $1.3064 Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $1.2993 Low July 15 2013
SUP 4: $1.2756 2013 Low July 9 2013
The $1.6600 resistance confirmed significance with the GBP/USD retreating sharply lower. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.6600 to relieve bearish pressure but a close above the 200-DMA would add support to the bullish case. Overall a close above $1.6757 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to the $1.6881-1.6937 region. While $1.6600 caps, immediate focus is on the 55-WMA with overall focus on 2014 lows.
RES 4: $1.6712 Breakdown level Aug 19
RES 3: $1.6689 200-DMA
RES 2: $1.6600 High Aug 25
RES 1: $1.6565 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: $1.6545
SUP 1: $1.6535 Low Aug 25
SUP 2: $1.6501 Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $1.6484 55-WMA
SUP 4: $1.6480 Bollinger band base
Overbought daily studies and closes well above the Bollinger band top have taken their toll with USD/JPY dipping back towards the Y103.40-50 support region and struggling a little ahead of Monday’s high. Bears continue to look for a close below Y103.40 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA (Y102.87) to hint at a deeper correction. While the Y103.40-50 region supports overall focus remains on the 2014 highs at Y105.44.
RES 4: Y107.01 Weekly High Sept 2008
RES 3: Y105.44 2014 High Jan 2
RES 2: Y104.92 High Jan 16
RES 1: Y104.27 High Aug 25
LPRICE: Y103.88
SUP 1: Y103.75 Low Aug 26
SUP 2: Y103.50 Low Aug 22
SUP 3: Y103.40 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 4: Y103.11 Hourly support Aug 20
The correction lower from failed attempts at the Y138.07 level continues with the close below the 21-DMA Tuesday adding weight to the bearish case. Bears continue to look for a close below Y136.77 to see focus return to retests of the 2014 low. Layers of resistance are now noted in the Y137.18-138.07 region with bulls needing a close above Y137.41 to relieve the renewed bearish pressure and above Y138.07 to shift focus higher
RES 4: Y138.07 High Aug 1, Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y137.71 55-DMA
RES 2: Y137.41 High Aug 26
RES 1: Y137.18 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y136.87
SUP 1: Y136.77 Low Aug 15
SUP 2: Y136.35 Low Aug 12, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: Y135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
SUP 4: Y134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
The close below both the 21 & 55-DMAs Monday & Tuesday appear to be adding weight to the bearish case with the pair looking heavy and hovering above the daily channel base. Bears look for a close below the rising daily channel base to shift overall bearish focus back to the 2014 lows. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.7980 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to the Gbp0.8015-36 region which has proved tough going for the pair this month.
RES 4: Gbp0.8036 High Aug 14
RES 3: Gbp0.8015 High Aug 22
RES 2: Gbp0.7980 High Aug 25
RES 1: Gbp0.7967 High Aug 26
LPRICE: Gbp0.7950
SUP 1: Gbp0.7949 Rising daily channel base
SUP 2: Gbp0.7915 Low Aug 6
SUP 3: Gbp0.7903 Low July 28
SUP 4: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
