Fresh 2014/11 mth lows continue with bears initially focused on $1.3071-1.3101 where the falling daily channel base and Sept 2013 mthly lows are located. Layers of resistance remain $1.3220-1.3445 and are an issue for bulls who need a close above $1.3298 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA ($1.3343) to provide breathing room. The key concerns for bears remain the O/S daily studies and proximity of the Bollinger band base
RES 4: $1.3328 Hourly resistance Aug 19
RES 3: $1.3298 Hourly resistance Aug 20
RES 2: $1.3262 Hourly resistance Aug 22
RES 1: $1.3220 Low Aug 22 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.3201
SUP 1: $1.3179 Hourly support Aug 26
SUP 2: $1.3101 Monthly Low Sept 7 2013
SUP 3: $1.3071 Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $1.2993 Low July 15 2013
Initial support has developed on the hourlies today at $1.6565 with GBP/USD bouncing back towards initial resistance as daily studies remain at O/S levels and overdue a correction. Bulls look for a close above $1.6600 to relieve bearish pressure a little but a close above the 200-DMA would add support to the bullish case. Overall a close above $1.6757 is now needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to the $1.6881-1.6937 region.
RES 4: $1.6757 Low Aug 12 now resistance
RES 3: $1.6712 Breakdown level Aug 19
RES 2: $1.6686 200-DMA
RES 1: $1.6600 Hourly resistance Aug 21
LPRICE: $1.6588
SUP 1: $1.6565 Hourly support Aug 26
SUP 2: $1.6535 Low Aug 25
SUP 3: $1.6501 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.6484 55-WMA
O/B studies and closes above the Bollinger band top seem to be taking their toll with dollar-yen dipping back towards the Y103.40-50 support. Bears look for a close below Y103.40 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure a little and below the 21-DMA (Y102.78) to hint at a deeper correction. While the Y103.40-50 region supports overall focus remains on the 2014 highs at Y105.44 but the Bollinger band top and O/B studies may limit topside follow through
RES 4: Y107.01 Weekly High Sept 2008
RES 3: Y105.44 2014 High Jan 2
RES 2: Y104.92 High Jan 16
RES 1: Y104.27 Hourly resistance Aug 25
LPRICE: Y103.89
SUP 1: Y103.50 Low Aug 22
SUP 2: Y103.40 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: Y103.11 Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: Y102.90 Low Aug 20
The recent rally stalled ahead of the Y138.07 Aug 1 high and Bollinger band top with the pair now flirting with the 21-DMA (Y137.20) and the Y137.01 hourly support. Bears continued to look for a close below Y137.01 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Y136.77 to shift focus back to 2014 lows. The Y138.07 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to shift focus to the Y138.77-139.30 region.
RES 4: Y138.48 High July 14
RES 3: Y138.07 High Aug 1, Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y137.74 55-DMA
RES 1: Y137.33 Hourly resistance Aug 25
LPRICE: Y137.09
SUP 1: Y137.01 Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 2: Y136.77 Low Aug 15
SUP 3: Y136.35 Low Aug 12
SUP 4: Y135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
The close below both the 21 & 55-DMAs Monday appears to have ended bullish hopes for a sustained rally with repeated attempts in the past two weeks reversing sharply lower. Bears now look for a close below the short term rising daily channel base to add weight to the bearish case targeting the 2014 lows. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.7980 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to the Gbp0.8015-36 region.
RES 4: Gbp0.8036 High Aug 14
RES 3: Gbp0.8015 High Aug 22
RES 2: Gbp0.7980 High Aug 25
RES 1: Gbp0.7963 Hourly resistance Aug 25
LPRICE: Gbp0.7955
SUP 1: Gbp0.7952 Low Aug 25
SUP 2: Gbp0.7946 Rising short term daily channel base
SUP 3: Gbp0.7915 Low Aug 6
SUP 4: Gbp0.7903 Low July 28
