Recent topside failures ahead of the key $1.3445 resistance level have seen bearish hopes tentatively reconfirmed. The $1.3485 level remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to confirm a break of the falling daily channel top and see overall focus shift to the $1.3650-00 region where 100 & 200-DMAs are located. While $1.3445 caps bears initially target the $1.3294-33 region with overall focus on the falling daily channel base at $1.3181.
RES 4: $1.3543 55-DMA
RES 3: $1.3485 High July 24, Falling daily channel top
RES 2: $1.3445 High Aug 1
RES 1: $1.3440 21-DMA
LPRICE: $1.3370
SUP 1: $1.3366 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: $1.3333 2014 low Aug 6
SUP 3: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
SUP 4: $1.3223 High Sept 5 2013 now support
Pressure has now shifted to last week’s low as GBP/USD continues to distance itself from the 100-DMA ($1.6880). Layers of resistance remain in the $1.6795-1.6894 region with bulls continuing to look for a close above $1.6894 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $1.7003 needed to shift focus back to 2014 highs. Bears remain firmly focused on the $1.6693-1.6738 region with a break below targeting the 200-DMA ($1.6657).
RES 4: $1.6894 Hourly resistance July 31
RES 3: $1.6863 High Aug 7
RES 2: $1.6828 Hourly resistance Aug 8
RES 1: $1.6795 High Aug 11
LPRICE: $1.6767
SUP 1: $1.6766 Low Aug 8
SUP 2: $1.6738 Low June 11
SUP 3: $1.6718 Monthly Low June 4
SUP 4: $1.6693 Monthly Low May 29
The recovery from Friday’s spike low tentatively continues with USD/JPY flirting with the 200-DMA (Y102.32). Bulls look for a close above Y102.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure. Focus then shifts to Y102.94-10. While Y102.45 caps bears remain focused on the Y101.07-32 support region with the key 55-WMA noted at Y101.27. Bears continue to look for a weekly close below the 55-WMA to add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: Y103.09 Monthly High July 30
RES 3: Y102.94 High Aug 5
RES 2: Y102.66 High Aug 6
RES 1: Y102.45 Low Aug 5 now resistance
LPRICE: Y102.26
SUP 1: Y102.02 Low Aug 11
SUP 2: Y101.50 Low Aug 8
SUP 3: Y101.32 Low July 23
SUP 4: Y101.27 55-WMA
The failure to capitalise on Friday’s bounce from fresh 2014 & 9 month lows has seen the EUR/JPY retreat from ahead of the Y137.09-51 resistance region with bears now looking for a close below Monday’s low to reconfirm bearish focus. Bulls continue to look for a close above the falling channel top to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above the 55-DMA (Y138.13) to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the Y139.30-75 region
RES 4: Y137.51 Falling daily channel top
RES 3: Y137.36 Alternating daily support/resistance
RES 2: Y137.12 High Aug 7
RES 1: Y137.09 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y136.74
SUP 1: Y136.59 Low Aug 11
SUP 2: Y135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
SUP 3: Y134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: Y133.98 Falling daily channel base
After finding support below the 21-DMA last week the EUR/GBP managed the first spike above the 55-DMA (Gbp0.7986) Friday since mid-April. The move higher confirmed an easing of bearish pressure but the lack of follow through is an issue for bulls with the proximity of the Bollinger band top (Gbp0.7986) and Ichimoku cloud base (Gbp0.8005) also concerns. In saying that, bears need a close below Gbp0.7962 to shift focus back to the Gbp0.7904-15 region.
RES 4: Gbp0.8088 100-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.8051 Low June 11 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 1: Gbp0.7998 High Aug 8
LPRICE: Gbp0.7976
SUP 1: Gbp0.7962 Hourly support Aug 8
SUP 2: Gbp0.7915 Low Aug 6
SUP 3: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
SUP 4: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
