The German trade balance for June is expected to show an increase in exportsand imports after both figures declined in May. Imports were weak during the firsttwo months of Q2, likely reflecting some softness in domestic demand in Germany.On the other hand, exports have strengthened a bit after the slowing of the US andChina in early 2014 resulted in weak exports in end-Q1. These trends mean netexports could give a positive contribution to German GDP growth in Q2.
French industrial production is set to have increased in June but it could end upbeing weaker than expected. Industrial production points to a decline in GDP growthbut private consumption is likely to have increased and we expect slightly higheractivity in Q2.
In the US, unit labour cost in the second quarter is due for release and we estimate amodest increase of 1.6% which is a bit higher than consensus at 1.1%.
Read the full report: FX Daily