Following recent failures at the key $1.3445 resistance level the EUR/USD resumed its move lower Tuesday with fresh 2014 and 9 month lows before finding support marginally above the 100-WMA. Resistance has developed on the hourlies in the $1.3378-1.3407 region but bulls need a close above $1.3445 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to the $1.3485-1.3530 region. While $1.3445 caps bears target the falling daily channel base at $1.3211
RES 4: $1.3485 High July 24, 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.3445 High Aug 1
RES 2: $1.3407 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: $1.3378 Hourly resistance Aug 6
LPRICE: $1.3365
SUP 1: $1.3354 100-WMA
SUP 2: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
SUP 3: $1.3223 High Sept 5 2013 now support
SUP 4: $1.3211 Falling daily channel base May/July highs
Time spent below the 100-DMA has been brief with GBP/USD closing back above Tuesday and pressuring the $1.6894 initial resistance once again. Bulls look for a close above $1.6894 to ease bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA to hint at further topside with a close above the 21-DMA then needed to add support to the bullish case. Bears need fresh lows to confirm bearish focus but the proximity of the Bolli base and O/S studies may limit downside follow through.
RES 4: $1.7001 High July 28
RES 3: $1.6963 55-DMA
RES 2: $1.6928 Hourly resistance July 30
RES 1: $1.6894 Hourly resistance July 31
LPRICE: $1.6865
SUP 1: $1.6838 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: $1.6813 Low Aug 1
SUP 3: $1.6738 Low June 11
SUP 4: $1.6718 Monthly Low June 4
Y102.35 confirmed significance as support Friday. Bears need a close below Y102.35 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a close below Y101.95 to confirm a break of 100 & 200-DMAs and hint at a deeper correction targeting the Y101.07-32 region. Bulls now need a close back above Y103.10 to reconfirm bullish pressure although very O/B daily studies may limit topside follow through and see rallies capped ahead of last week’s high.
RES 4: Y104.13 Monthly High Apr 4
RES 3: Y103.40 High Apr 7
RES 2: Y103.10 High July 30
RES 1: Y102.94 High Aug 5
LPRICE: Y102.58
SUP 1: Y102.35 High June 18 now support
SUP 2: Y102.25 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y102.09 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y101.95 High July now support
The failure to capitalise on time spent above the 21-DMA (Y137.40) saw EUR/JPY close back below the Y137.36 support, ending bullish hopes and shifting immediate focus back to the Y136.23-63 region with the 2014 low noted at Y136.23. Bulls now need a close above the Y138.01 Aug 1 high to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with a close above the 55-DMA then needed to hint at a bigger bounce targeting the Y139.30-68 region.
RES 4: Y138.30 55-DMA
RES 3: Y138.01 High Aug 1
RES 2: Y137.80 Falling channel top May/Aug highs
RES 1: Y137.36 Alternating daily support/resistance
LPRICE: Y137.11
SUP 1: Y136.63 Low July 25 & 28
SUP 2: Y136.36 Low July 24
SUP 3: Y136.30 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: Y136.23 2014 Low Feb 4
The rally was short lived with Friday’s close above the Bollinger band top reversed this week with the close below the 21-DMA hinting at a return in focus to the 2014 low and overall to 2012 lows. The Gbp0.7918 level is currently supporting but bulls need a close back above Gbp0.7942 to ease the renewed bearish pressure and a close above the 55-DMA to target the key Gbp0.8033-51 region. Daily studies are adding weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: Gbp0.7999 55-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.7985 High Aug 1
RES 2: Gbp0.7972 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: Gbp0.7942 Hourly resistance Aug 5
LPRICE: Gbp0.7924
SUP 1: Gbp0.7918 Low Aug 5
SUP 2: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
SUP 3: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
SUP 4: Gbp0.7845 Trend line projection June/July lows
