Rallies continue to stall ahead of $1.3445 with bulls needing a close above to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus back to the $1.3485-1.3534 region. Overall bulls look for a close above $1.3534 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($1.3499) and falling daily channel top, ending bearish hopes and shifting focus to the $1.3650-00 region. The key concern for bears are O/S studies but while $1.3445 caps immediate focus remains on fresh 2014 lows.
RES 4: $1.3534 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3701-1.3367
RES 3: $1.3508 High July 28
RES 2: $1.3485 High July 24
RES 1: $1.3445 High Aug 1
LPRICE: $1.3421
SUP 1: $1.3407 Hourly support Aug 1
SUP 2: $1.3367 2014 Low July 30
SUP 3: $1.3355 100-WMA
SUP 4: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
After closing below the 100-DMA for the first time since Aug 2014 last Friday GBP/USD is flirting with the 100-DMA with daily studies looking to correct from O/S levels. As a result bulls now need a close above $1.6894 to ease bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA to hint at further topside. Bears need fresh lows to confirm bearish focus but the proximity of the Bolli base and O/S studies may limit downside follow through
RES 4: $1.7001 High July 28
RES 3: $1.6965 55-DMA
RES 2: $1.6928 Hourly resistance July 30
RES 1: $1.6894 Hourly resistance July 31
LPRICE: $1.6866
SUP 1: $1.6838 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: $1.6813 Low Aug 1
SUP 3: $1.6738 Low June 11
SUP 4: $1.6718 Monthly Low June 4
The Y102.35 level confirmed significance as support Friday with the correction lower finding support around this level. Bears need a close below Y102.35 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a close below Y101.95 to confirm a break of 100 & 200-DMAs and hint at a deeper correction targeting the Y101.07-32 region. Bulls now need a close back above Y102.74 to reconfirm bullish pressure although very O/B daily studies may limit topside.
RES 4: Y104.13 Monthly High Apr 4
RES 3: Y103.40 High Apr 7
RES 2: Y103.10 High July 30
RES 1: Y102.74 High Aug 4
LPRICE: Y102.46
SUP 1: Y102.35 High June 18 now support
SUP 2: Y102.23 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y102.09 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y101.95 High July now support
EUR/JPY continues to chop around the falling daily channel top (Y137.52) and flirt with the 21-DMA (Y137.47) in the process. The Y137.36 support is now key with bears now needing a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus back to the Y136.36-64 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y138.01 to provide breathing room and confirm that last week’s close above the 21-DMA has legs with focus shifting to Y138.30-77.
RES 4: Y138.77 High July 9
RES 3: Y138.69 38.2% Fibonacci 142.46-136.36
RES 2: Y138.30 55-DMA
RES 1: Y138.01 High Aug 1
LPRICE: Y137.62
SUP 1: Y137.61 Hourly support Aug 5
SUP 2: Y137.36 High July 22 now support
SUP 3: Y137.13 High July 29 now support
SUP 4: Y136.63 Low July 25 & 28
EUR/GBP remained capped marginally ahead of Friday’s high before closing below the previous initial support at Gbp0.7972. The Gbp0.7929-42 region remains key support with a close below Gbp0.7942 needed to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA needed to see bears initially focus on the 2014 low. While Gbp0.7929-42 supports bulls target Gbp0.8033-51 with a close above the 55-DMA needed to add support to the bullish case
RES 4: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 3: Gbp0.8003 55-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.7985 High Aug 1
RES 1: Gbp0.7972 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: Gbp0.7958
SUP 1: Gbp0.7942 High July 31 now support
SUP 2: Gbp0.7929 21-DMA
SUP 3: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
SUP 4: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
