After finding support ahead of the 100-DMA last week the EUR/USD bounced to marginally trade above the previous $1.3444 resistance. Bulls look for a close above $1.3445 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with focus then shifting to the $1.3486-1.3534 region. A close above $1.3534 is needed to confirm an end to bearish hopes and target the $1.3652-1.3701 region. Bears need a close below $1.3407 to reconfirm bearish pressure.
RES 4: $1.3534 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3701-1.3367
RES 3: $1.3508 High July 28
RES 2: $1.3485 High July 24
RES 1: $1.3445 High Aug 1
LPRICE: $1.3420
SUP 1: $1.3407 Hourly support Aug 1
SUP 2: $1.3367 2014 Low July 30
SUP 3: $1.3355 100-WMA
SUP 4: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
Fridays move lower saw the GBP/USD close below the 100-DMA for the first time since Aug 2013 adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need to see a close above $1.6928 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $1.7055 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target 2014 highs. The key concern for bears at present are O/S daily studies but while $1.6928 caps $1.6693-1.6738 is targeted.
RES 4: $1.6962 55-DMA
RES 3: $1.6928 Hourly resistance July 30
RES 2: $1.6894 Hourly resistance July 31
RES 1: $1.6862 100-DMA
LPRICE: $1.6824
SUP 1: $1.6813 Low Aug 1
SUP 2: $1.6738 Low June 11
SUP 3: $1.6718 Monthly Low June 4
SUP 4: $1.6693 Monthly Low May 29
Y102.35 confirmed significance as support Friday. Bears now need a close below Y102.35 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a close below Y101.95 to confirm a break of 100 & 200-DMAs and hint at a deeper correction targeting the Y101.07-32 region. Bulls now need a close back above Y102.72 to reconfirm bullish pressure although very O/B daily studies may limit topside follow through and see rallies capped ahead of Y103.10.
RES 4: Y104.13 Monthly High Apr 4
RES 3: Y103.40 High Apr 7
RES 2: Y103.10 High July 30
RES 1: Y102.72 Low July 31 now resistance
LPRICE: Y102.69
SUP 1: Y102.35 High June 18 now support
SUP 2: Y102.21 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y102.08 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y101.95 High July now support
EUR/GBP continued to chop around the falling daily channel top Friday with the lack of follow through around Y138.00 a concern to bulls. In saying that, consolidation continues above the 21-DMA (Y137.52) with bulls initially targeting Y138.33-77 and then Y139.30-140.11 while Y137.50 supports. Bears need a close below Y137.50 to confirm a break back below the 21-DMA and see focus shift back to retests of last week’s lows and double daily bottom.
RES 4: Y138.77 High July 9
RES 3: Y138.69 38.2% Fibonacci 142.46-136.36
RES 2: Y138.33 55-DMA
RES 1: Y138.01 High Aug 1
LPRICE: Y137.83
SUP 1: Y137.50 Low July 31
SUP 2: Y137.36 High July 22 now support
SUP 3: Y137.13 High July 29 now support
SUP 4: Y136.63 Low July 25 & 28
The close marginally above the 21-DMA Thursday was followed up with an aggressive rally Friday that closed above the falling daily trend line with focus now having shifted to Gbp0.8003-51. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at Gbp0.7972 but bears need to see a close back below Gbp0.7942 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to shift overall focus back to 2012 lows. Daily studies are supportive of further topside.
RES 4: Gbp0.8107 100-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.8051 Low June 11 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 1: Gbp0.8003 55-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.7974
SUP 1: Gbp0.7972 Hourly support Aug 1
SUP 2: Gbp0.7942 High July 31 now support
SUP 3: Gbp0.7929 21-DMA
SUP 4: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
