EUR/USD is hovering precariously above the $1.3390-00 region as it consolidates Tuesday’s break below the 200-WMA ($1.3419), the first since Nov 2013. Layers of resistance are now noted $1.3419-1.3577 with bulls now needing a close above $1.3444 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3486 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($1.3538) & falling channel top ($1.3550). Daily studies remain O/S but will not become an issue while the $1.3444-85 region caps. *RES 4: $1.3513 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 3: $1.3485 High July 24
RES 2: $1.3444 High July 28
RES 1: $1.3419 Hourly resistance July 29
LPRICE: $1.3409
SUP 1: $1.3400 Low Nov 21 2013
SUP 2: $1.3390 Low Nov 13 2013
SUP 3: $1.3348 100-WMA
SUP 4: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
The 55-DMA finally gave way with it now noted as initial resistance as bears remain firmly focused on layers of support $1.6848-1.6921. This includes the long term rising daily channel base, 61.8% Fibo and 100-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above $1.7007 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21-DMA remains needed to end bearish hopes and target 2014 highs. Below $1.6848 targets May & June monthly lows.
RES 4: $1.7082 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.7053 High July 24
RES 2: $1.7007 Low June 27 now resistance
RES 1: $1.6960 55-DMA
LPRICE: $1.6943
SUP 1: $1.6921 Low June 13 & 18
SUP 2: $1.6906 Rising daily channel base Mar/May/June lows
SUP 3: $1.6884 61.8% Fibonacci $1.6696-1.7191
SUP 4: $1.6856 100-DMA
Higher daily lows continue for the USD/JPY with the break of the 100 & 200-DMAs providing bulls with breathing room and shifting immediate focus to Y102.26-35. Bears now need a close back below Y101.95 to ease bullish pressure whereas a close below Y101.61 is now needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting focus back to the Y101.07-32 region. Daily studies are supportive of further topside and are not yet O/B enough to be a worry.
RES 4: Y103.02 Monthly High May 2
RES 3: Y102.79 Monthly High June 4
RES 2: Y102.35 High June 18
RES 1: Y102.26 High July 3, Bollinger band top
LPRICE: Y102.08
SUP 1: Y101.95 Hourly support July 29
SUP 2: Y101.82 Hourly support July 29
SUP 3: Y101.61 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 4: Y101.32 Low July 23
EUR/JPY managed the first weekly close below the 55-WMA since Nov 2012 last week adding weight to the bearish case. Immediate focus remains on the layers of support clustered in the Y136.07-63 region which includes the 2014 low. Bulls need to see a close above Y137.34 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the falling daily channel top is needed to hint at further topside, although key moving averages are noted Y138.39-139.73
RES 4: Y138.39 55-DMA
RES 3: Y137.83 Falling daily channel top
RES 2: Y137.66 21-DMA
RES 1: Y137.34 High July 22, 55-WMA
LPRICE: Y136.88
SUP 1: Y136.63 Low July 25 & 28
SUP 2: Y136.36 Low July 24
SUP 3: Y136.23 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y136.07 Bollinger band base
The 21-DMA has again thwarted attempts to rally with bulls needing a close above Gbp0.7941 to confirm a break and an easing of bearish pressure. Overall bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.7982 to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8033 level. While the Gbp0.7941 level caps bears retain immediate focus on the falling wedge base and overall focus on 2012 lows.
RES 4: Gbp0.8014 55-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.7982 High July 14 & 15
RES 2: Gbp0.7941 High July 24
RES 1: Gbp0.7925 21-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.7911
SUP 1: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
SUP 2: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
SUP 3: Gbp0.7858 Falling wedge base
SUP 4: Gbp0.7810 Monthly Low Aug 16 2012
