Fresh 2014 and 8 month lows continued for the euro Thursday before the EUR/USD managed the first decent bounce this week. Layers of resistance remain in the $1.3485-1.3576 region with the 21-DMA at $1.3576. Bulls need a close above $1.3513 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift focus to $1.3652-1.3707. While $1.3513 caps bears continue to look for the first close below the 200-WMA since Sept 2013.
RES 4: $1.3576 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.3549 High July 21
RES 2: $1.3513 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: $1.3485 High July 24
LPRICE: $1.3465
SUP 1: $1.3438 2014 Low July 24
SUP 2: $1.3421 200-WMA
SUP 3: $1.3400 Low Nov 21 2013
SUP 4: $1.3340 100-WMA
The move lower gathered momentum Thursday before GBP/USD found support ahead of the 55-DMA. Initial resistance is now noted at the $1.7007 level that previously supported but bulls need to see a close above Thursday’s high to ease bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA to shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears currently target the long term channel base with below the 55-DMA needed to add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: $1.7117 High July 18
RES 3: $1.7102 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.7053 High July 24
RES 1: $1.7007 Low June 27 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.6990
SUP 1: $1.6951 55-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6942 50.0% Fibonacci $1.6696-1.7191
SUP 3: $1.6921 Low June 13 & 18
SUP 4: $1.6891 Rising daily channel base Mar/May/June lows
The recovery continued Thursday with the close above the 21-DMA providing bulls with some comfort. In saying that, the rally has stalled at the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top with a break above shifting focus to the 100 & 200-DMAs at Y102.07 and then the Y102.26-35 region. Bears now need to see a close below the 21-DMA to end the rally and shift focus back to the 55-WMA. Daily studies are heading higher and are supportive of further topside
RES 4: Y102.35 High June 18
RES 3: Y102.26 High July 3
RES 2: Y102.07 100-DMA, 200-DMA
RES 1: Y101.84 Falling daily channel top, 55-DMA
LPRICE: Y101.75
SUP 1: Y101.57 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y101.32 Low July 23
SUP 3: Y101.11 55-WMA
SUP 4: Y100.82 Monthly low May 21
The break and close above the Y137.00 level Thursday eased the bearish pressure a little with bulls now looking for a close above Y137.34 to provide some breathing room. A close above Y138.77 is then needed to confirm a break of the channel top and 55-DMA, ending bearish hopes and shifting focus to the Y139.30-140.11 region where 100 & 200-DMAs are located. While Y137.34 caps bears will continue to target fresh 2014 lows
RES 4: Y138.57 55-DMA
RES 3: Y138.06 Falling daily channel top
RES 2: Y137.97 21-DMA
RES 1: Y137.34 High July 22
LPRICE: Y137.07
SUP 1: Y136.97 Hourly support July 25
SUP 2: Y136.81 Hourly support July 24
SUP 3: Y136.36 Low July 24
SUP 4: Y136.23 2014 Low Feb 4
Thursday’s rally stalled at the 21-DMA and falling wedge top confirming their significance with bulls now needing a close above Gbp0.7941 to to confirm a break and an easing of bearish pressure. Overall bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.7982 to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8033 level. While the Gbp0.7941 level caps bears retain immediate focus on the falling wedge base and overall focus on 2012 lows.
RES 4: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 3: Gbp0.8027 55-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.7982 High July 14 & 15
RES 1: Gbp0.7941 High July 24
LPRICE: Gbp0.7926
SUP 1: Gbp0.7868 Falling wedge base
SUP 2: Gbp0.7843 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: Gbp0.7810 Monthly Low Aug 16 2012
SUP 4: Gbp0.7764 2012 Low July 2012
