On the data front, the calendar is thin today with minutes from the Bank of England(BoE) July meeting as the main event. With the first rate hike from the BoE likely tobe drawing closer, the market will probably scrutinise the minutes for any new hintsas to when this might take place. Euro area consumer confidence in July may alsoattract some attention today. We expect the index to rise to -7 from -7.5 and thusindicate a further retreat in pessimism among euro area consumers.
Other than that, geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, respectively, are likely tobe the focal point today. Note though, the global oil market has so far taken the recentescalation of geopolitical tensions relatively calmly. First, ample supplies on theglobal market are keeping a hand over oil prices. Second, Russia’s energy trade hasnot been affected by sanctions, which have so far targeted certain individuals andorganisations. Hence, in our view, the risk of a higher oil price is relatively limited atthe current stage. That said, the long list of geopolitical events recently has triggered asmall rise in oil price volatility albeit from a very low level.
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