A light global calendar today with focus likely to remain on the geopolitical tensions. Both US and Europe are increasing the pressure on Russia following the MH17 crash. European leaders are calling for ‘immediate, unconditional and secure access forinternational experts’ to the plane wreckage and to begin the recovering of remains.The dispute on who was behind the downing of the MH17 is ongoing. FinancialTimes writes that intelligence information suggests it was pro-Russian separatists andRussian military personnel -and that it was by mistake. Further sanctions on Russiacould follow this week, see Russian-Ukrainian crisis takes a tragic turn, 18 July.
The main releases in Europe this week are the flash PMIs on Thursday and Ifoon Friday. Leading indicators have recently been casting doubt on the strength of therecovery. Money supply and lending growth data from ECB will attract more thanusual attention on Friday as the lending growth data will determine how much bankscan take on the second stage of the TLTROs. For more on the technical details of theTLTROs see ECB research: Draghi reveals favourable TLTRO details, 4 July.
In the US the focal points this week are inflation data on Tuesday, new home salesdata on Thursday and durable goods orders on Friday. The US labour market has beenstrengthening and with inflation on the rise, these prints will be increasingly in focus.
Read the full report: FX Daily