EUR/USD continues to find support ahead of the $1.3564-76 region with the rising weekly channel base off July 2013 lows coming in at $1.3576 and increasing the significance of this support. Bears need a close below $1.3564 to confirm bearish focus and initially target $1.3503-12. While $1.3564-76 supports, bulls need to work through layers of resistance $1.3651-1.3730 to end bearish hopes and hint at a return to 2014 highs.
RES 4: $1.3730 100-DMA
RES 3: $1.3700 High July 1
RES 2: $1.3669 Hourly resistance July 2, Ichimoku cloud base
RES 1: $1.3651 High July 10
LPRICE: $1.3601
SUP 1: $1.3576 Low June 26, Trend line off July 2013 low
SUP 2: $1.3564 Low June 20
SUP 3: $1.3512 Low June 12
SUP 4: $1.3503 Monthly Low June 5
Hesitation ahead of the $1.7180-98 region is of some concern to bulls when combined with the very O/B daily studies overdue a correction. The proximity of the Bollinger band top is also likely to limit topside follow through. In saying that, the $1.7063-85 region remains key support with bears needing a close below $1.7063 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, easing bullish pressure and seeing immediate focus shift to the $1.6925-55 region
RES 4: $1.7216 Rising daily channel top
RES 3: $1.7198 High Oct 21 2008
RES 2: $1.7180 2014 High July 4
RES 1: $1.7151 High July 11
LPRICE: $1.7115
SUP 1: $1.7085 Low July 8
SUP 2: $1.7063 Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: $1.7007 Low June 27
SUP 4: $1.6994 38.2% Fibonacci $1.6696-1.7180
Bears dominate with immediate focus on Y100.75-82 with the move lower Thursday taking out the triangle base before finding support ahead of the 55-WMA. Tthe pair has not closed below the 55-WMA since Oct 2012 with bears looking for a close below to add weight to their case. Layers of resistance remain Y101.41-102.35 with bears needing a close above Y101.66 to ease bearish pressure and above Y101.95 to shift focus back to the key Y102.35 level.
RES 4: Y101.95 Alternating support/resistance level, 55-DMA
RES 3: Y101.86 High July 9
RES 2: Y101.66 Hourly resistance July 10
RES 1: Y101.41 Hourly resistance July 14
LPRICE: Y101.40
SUP 1: Y101.10 55-WMA, Low July 10
SUP 2: Y100.82 Monthly Low May 21
SUP 3: Y100.75 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y100.43 High Nov 15 2013 now support
The break of the short term rising daily channel base last week saw immediate focus shift to the 55-WMA and then the 2014 low beneath. Layers of resistance remain on the hourly and daily time frames with bears needing a close above Y138.11 to ease bearish pressure a little and a close above Y138.76 to shift focus back to the Y139.28-140.27 region. The Bollinger band base at Y137.93 appears to be slowing the move lower for now.
RES 4: Y138.76 High July 9
RES 3: Y138.50 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: Y138.30 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: Y138.11 Low July 8
LPRICE: Y137.93
SUP 1: Y137.50 Low July 10
SUP 2: Y137.08 55-WMA
SUP 3: Y136.23 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y135.94 High Nov 19 2013 now support
The Gbp0.7968-80 region is key to start the new week with bulls looking for a close above to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (Gbp0.7974) and ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above Gbp0.8033 remains needed to end bearish hopes and shift focus to the Gbp0.8150-95 region although the 55-DMA at Gbp0.8075 may slow the rally a little. While Gbp0.7968-80 caps bears continue to target the weekly channel base and the Gbp0.7764 2012 low overall.
RES 4: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 3: Gbp0.7998 Low July 1 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.7980 Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: Gbp0.7968 High July 10
LPRICE: Gbp0.7944
SUP 1: Gbp0.7937 Low July 11
SUP 2: Gbp0.7926 Low July 8
SUP 3: Gbp0.7915 2014 Low July 7 2014
SUP 4: Gbp0.7887 Low Sept 5 2012
