EUR/USD was unable to capitalize on recent bounces with the sharp reversal lower Thursday seeing the immediate focus shift back to the $1.3564-76 support region. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.3564 to target the key $1.3503-12 region. With the Bollinger band base at $1.3540 and closes below a rarity follow through below this level is expected to be limited. Layers of resistance remain in the $1.3651-1.3731 region and should slow rallies
RES 4: $1.3709 Ichimoku cloud base
RES 3: $1.3700 High July 1
RES 2: $1.3669 Hourly resistance July 2, 55-DMA
RES 1: $1.3651 High July 10
LPRICE: $1.3597
SUP 1: $1.3576 Low June 26
SUP 2: $1.3564 Low June 20
SUP 3: $1.3512 Low June 12
SUP 4: $1.3503 Monthly Low June 5
The continued hesitation ahead of $1.7180-98 is of some concern to bulls when combined with the very O/B daily studies overdue a correction. The proximity of the Bollinger band top is also likely to limit topside follow through. In saying that, the $1.7063-85 region remains key support with bears needing a close below $1.7063 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, easing bullish pressure and seeing immediate focus shift to the $1.6914-55 region
RES 4: $1.7516 High Oct 20 2008
RES 3: $1.7198 High Oct 21 2008
RES 2: $1.7180 2014 High July 4
RES 1: $1.7150 Hourly support July 10 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.7123
SUP 1: $1.7085 Low July 8
SUP 2: $1.7063 Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: $1.7007 Low June 27
SUP 4: $1.6948 Low June 25
Overall focus remains on the Y100.75-82 region with the move lower Thursday taking out the triangle base before finding support ahead of the 55-WMA. Layers of resistance remain in the Y101.39-102.35 region with bears needing a close above Y101.66 to ease bearish pressure and above Y101.95 to shift focus back to the key Y102.35 level. Daily studies are heading lower with room to move before becoming O/S is an issue for bears.
RES 4: Y101.95 Alternating support/resistance level, 55-DMA
RES 3: Y101.86 High July 9
RES 2: Y101.66 Hourly resistance July 10
RES 1: Y101.39 Hourly resistance July 10
LPRICE: Y101.25
SUP 1: Y101.00 55-WMA
SUP 2: Y100.82 Monthly Low May 21
SUP 3: Y100.75 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y100.43 High Nov 15 2013 now support
The bounce from the short term rising daily channel base was short lived with the move to fresh 5 month lows seeing immediate focus shift to the 55-WMA and then the 2014 low beneath. Layers of resistance have developed on the hourly and daily time frames with bears now needing a close above Y138.11 to ease bearish pressure a little and a close above Y138.81 to shift focus back to the Y139.36-140.27 region.
RES 4: Y138.50 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 3: Y138.30 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: Y138.11 Low July 8
RES 1: Y137.92 Hourly resistance July 11
LPRICE: Y137.70
SUP 1: Y137.50 Low July 10
SUP 2: Y137.08 55-WMA
SUP 3: Y136.23 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y135.94 High Nov 19 2013 now support
Bearish focus continues to dominate with layers of support on the hourlies taken care of with ease, reconfirming immediate focus on the 2014 low and overall focus on the Gbp0.7764 2012 Low. Bulls now need to see a close above Gbp0.7980 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above Gbp0.8033 remains needed to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the Gbp0.8150-95 region.
RES 4: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 3: Gbp0.7998 Low July 1 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.7980 Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: Gbp0.7948 Hourly resistance July 10
LPRICE: Gbp0.7940
SUP 1: Gbp0.7939 Hourly support July 10
SUP 2: Gbp0.7926 Low July 8
SUP 3: Gbp0.7915 2014 Low July 7 2014
SUP 4: Gbp0.7887 Low Sept 5 2012
