US initial unemployment claims are expected to indicate a continued improvement inthe labour market. The current level of the initial unemployment claims hashistorically been consistent with monthly gains in non-farm payrolls exceeding250,000 as reflected in the most recent non-farm payrolls for June.
The interest rate meeting in Bank of England is unlikely to offer significant news interms of changes to its current monetary policy. Instead focus will be on the minutesfrom the meeting (released on 23 July), where we will see if there is some dissidentvote among board members, advocating an earlier rate hike.
We estimate a monthly decline in France and Italian industrial production of 0.2% and0.5% respectively. Given the series of negative surprises in industrial production datafor June, notably in Germany and the UK, risks are probably tilted to the downsiderelative to our forecasts.
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