Layers of resistance have built up on the hourlies in the $1.3638-1.3700 region with bulls needing to see a close above $1.3700 to confirm a break of the 55 & 200-DMA’s. This then sees immediate focus shift to the 100-DMA and overall focus to the $1.3775 level. Bears currently retain the upper hand with a close below $1.3564 needed to confirm the current focus on retests of the June monthly low. Daily studies have room to move before becoming O/S.
RES 4: $1.3682 High July 2
RES 3: $1.3669 Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: $1.3638 Low July 2 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3611 High July 3
LPRICE: $1.3583
SUP 1: $1.3576 Low June 26
SUP 2: $1.3564 Low June 20
SUP 3: $1.3514 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.3503 Monthly Low June 5
The lack of follow through following the fresh 2014 and multi-year highs is of some concern to bulls when combined with the very O/B daily studies overdue a correction. Bears now need to see a close below the $1.7097 July 1 low to confirm an easing of the bullish pressure and a break of the short term rising channel. Overall bears look for close back below the previous 2014 high at $1.7063 to hint at a deeper correction initially target the 21-DMA.
RES 4: $1.7516 High Oct 20 2008
RES 3: $1.7327 Rising daily channel top
RES 2: $1.7198 High Oct 21 2008
RES 1: $1.7180 2014 High July 4
LPRICE: $1.7140
SUP 1: $1.7132 Low July 4
SUP 2: $1.7097 Low July 1
SUP 3: $1.7063 Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 4: $1.7007 Low June 27, 21-DMA
After the sharp bounce from below the 200-DMA last week USD/JPY consolidated Friday with the 21-DMA supporting and the pair struggling ahead of the key Y102.35 resistance level. Bulls look for a close above Y102.35 to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to the Y102.79-103.02 region and overall focus to the 104.13 Apr monthly high. A close below Y101.95 is needed to shift focus back to the Y101.23-41 region and then Y100.77-82 below.
RES 4: Y103.02 Monthly High May 2
RES 3: Y102.79 Monthly High June 4
RES 2: Y102.56 Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y102.35 High June 18
LPRICE: Y102.10
SUP 1: Y101.95 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y101.73 Hourly support July 3
SUP 3: Y101.41 Low July 2
SUP 4: Y101.23 Monthly Low June 30
Failure to carry on with the break above the 200-DMA last week provides bears with hope in that they now need to see a close back below Y138.54 to end bullish hopes and return focus to the Y137.72-91 region. Bulls now need to see a close above the Y139.31 June 10 high to confirm a break higher, although layers of resistance Y139.65-140.37 need to be accounted for before the Y140.99 level is retested
RES 4: Y139.65 55-DMA
RES 3: Y139.53 38.2% Fibonacci 142.47-137.70
RES 2: Y139.31 High June 10
RES 1: Y138.86 Low July 3, now resistance
LPRICE: Y138.67
SUP 1: Y138.63 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y138.54 Low July 2
SUP 3: Y137.91 Low June 26
SUP 4: Y137.72 Low June 16
Fresh 2014 and two year lows continued for EUR/GBP Friday with bears firmly focused on a retest of the 2012 low at Gbp0.7764. Initial resistance is now noted at Gbp0.7936 but bulls need to see a close above Gbp0.7951 to ease bearish pressure a little and a close above Gbp0.7998 to shift immediate focus to the key Gbp0.8033 resistance level, with a close above confirming an end to bearish hopes
RES 4: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 3: Gbp0.7998 Low July 1 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.7980 Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: Gbp0.7951 Low July 2 now resistance
LPRICE: Gbp0.7920
SUP 1: Gbp0.7918 2014 Low July 7 2014
SUP 2: Gbp0.7909 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: Gbp0.7887 Low Sept 5 2012
SUP 4: Gbp0.7764 2012 Low July 2012
