After the significant easing steps in June we expect ECB to largely repeat themessage from the June meeting at today’s meeting. There willprobably be focus on some of the unanswered questions about the announced easingmeasures, particularly in relation to the TLTROs and ECB’s commitment to a an ABSpurchase program at a later stage. However, we doubt that ECB is ready to providesubstantial new details at the current juncture.
In the US the June labour market report is due for release. We expect non-farmpayrolls to have increased 225k in June, broadly in line with the pace in recentmonths. Although our forecast is a little above consensus, the strong ADP-privateemployment report released yesterday suggests some upside risk to our forecast. Weexpect the unemployment rate to have remained unchanged at 6.3% in June.
Euro area retail sales have been strong in 2014 compared with 2013 and we expectthe trend to continue as consumer confidence continues its upward trend. We look fora 0.2% m/m reading.
UK services PMI is expected to stay roughly unchanged from the last reading of58.6, although manufacturing and construction surveys released earlier this weeksuggest some upside risk.
In the US the ISM non-manufacturing will also be released today. We expect aslight decline to 55.3 from 56.3 in light of the relatively large increase in ISM nonmanufacturingin recent months, which to some degree is a weather-related reboundthat in our view might have lost a bit of momentum in June.
We expect a 25bp cut and a lowering of the interest rate path at today’sRiksbank meeting.
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