While ISM manufacturing has recovered a lot from the winter lows, we believe it canimprove a bit further in the short term before moderating in Q3. Hence, we expectISM manufacturing to improve to 55.7 in June from 55.4 in May.
We expect the first estimates for the manufacturing PMIs in Spain and Italy to havemoved broadly sideways in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have stayedunchanged in both Germany and the euro area in June and May respectively.
In the UK there could be some focus on the release of minutes from the FinancialPolicy Committee (FPC) on 17 June when some moderate tightening of conditions formortgage loans was announced to cool the housing market. However, the macroprudentialtightening measures announced were less than expected and it will beinteresting to see to the degree of consensus on the FPC. UK manufacturing PMI forJune is due for release today.
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia may stir up the market as Ukraine’spresident has ended cease-fire with rebels in east Ukraine.
June PMIs are released in Norway and Sweden.
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