We expect today’s euro-area inflation to increase to 0.7% y/y (from 0.5% y/y in May)from an initial forecast of just 0.5% y/y on the back of the higher-than-expectedGerman inflation numbers released on Friday. Core inflation probably also edgedhigher from 0.7% y/y in May. That said, there could be some downside risk to ourforecast as Spanish inflation released on Friday increased less than expected in May.
In the euro area M3 money supply growth and credit growth for May will also bereleased today. For now we expect both money supply and credit growth to remainsubdued at current levels but there are tentative signs that the trend could be turningand ECB’s recent easing measures should also gradually support credit growth.
In the US pending home sales and a number of regional manufacturing surveysincluding Chicago purchasing manager survey are due for release.
The political situation in Iraq remains highly unstable and will probably demand someattention from the global oil market, although the threat to Iraqi oil production islimited.
Norwegian retail sales and credit growth are on top of today’s agenda in the Scandimarkets.
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