The main data release today is US durable goods orders where focus will be oncore orders. The series is quite volatile and although core orders were weaker thanexpected in April, it has jumped higher in recent months and suggests a rebound inUS capex in Q2 after a weak Q1. The recent upward trend is set to continue in May,thus giving more confidence of a broad-based recovery going into H2 (see morebelow).
Also in the US the third release of GDP growth in Q1 is due and we expect adownward revision to -1.8% q/q from -1.0% q/q. Our expectation of a downwardrevision follows as health care spending should be revised sharply lower.
ECB’s Weidmann speaks today. He is considered very hawkish but recently hassounded slightly more balanced about monetary policy and has not been able tochange market sentiment. Ahead of the EU summit on Friday, he is likely to continueto communicate a need for strengthening fiscal rules.
Today at 09:00 CET, we will publish our quarterly Nordic Outlook including ournew forecasts on the Nordic countries, see more on page two.
Read the full report: FX Daily